Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 42%, yet in-form Akhmat provide a compelling counter-argument — this Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Friday 10 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Akhmat (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Akhmat's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Akhmat are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Krylia Sovetov, 2 for Akhmat and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2023, ended Krylia Sovetov 2–1 Akhmat — a Krylia Sovetov win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 60% and Akhmat 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 56% | Akhmat 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Akhmat 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.966 / defence 0.816 | Akhmat attack 0.912 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.216. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 57 games and Akhmat's last 57.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 42% | Draw 30% | Akhmat 27%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.36 | Draw 3.29 | Akhmat 3.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Akhmat (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 50% (last 10 home games) | Akhmat 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 42% | Draw 30% | Akhmat 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.20 / Akhmat 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.966 / def 0.816 | Akhmat attack 0.912 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Akhmat xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 2 Akhmat.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 42% chance of winning, Akhmat a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Krylia Sovetov's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.91x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 57 games and Akhmat's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.29
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.10
0.90
Akhmat xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.90 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 19W 15D 23L from 57 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 23L across 57 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.44 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 11W 11D 6L from their last 28 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 12W 4D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.42 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat in 61%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs Akhmat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 19W 15D 23L in their last 57 games (1.26 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 24W 10D 23L in their last 57 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Akhmat away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.57 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
4
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Akhmat have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Akhmat 3-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 54%, Akhmat 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Krylia Sovetov) and 64% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 64% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 64% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 75% of Akhmat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Krylia Sovetov 0-2 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Akhmat 0.90 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Akhmat outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.97 / defence 0.82 against Akhmat attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 42% | Draw 30% | Akhmat 27%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Akhmat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 56%, Akhmat 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Akhmat's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.26 PPG, Akhmat 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.