FC Rostov 5-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Rostov vs Rubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Rostov and Rubin meet at Rostov Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Rostov's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Rostov at Rostov Arena this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Rostov Arena this season.
Rubin (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Rubin have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for FC Rostov, 1.00 for Rubin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Rubin — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Rostov 85% and Rubin 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 62% | Rubin 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.43 xG and Rubin 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.049 / defence 1.379 | Rubin attack 0.799 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.058. Data: 13 FC Rostov games / 13 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 43% | Draw 26% | Rubin 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Rubin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Rostov are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Rostov 67% | Rubin 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 43% | Draw 26% | Rubin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Rostov 1.43 / Rubin 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.049 / def 1.379 | Rubin attack 0.799 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Rubin xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs Rubin kick off?
FC Rostov vs Rubin kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Rubin?
FC Rostov 5 - 1 Rubin.
Where is FC Rostov vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Rubin part of?
FC Rostov vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 43% chance of winning, Rubin a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Rostov and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Rubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Rostov and Rubin in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Rubin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Rostov's attack at 1.05x the league average against Rubin's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.80x) against FC Rostov's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.83
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.60
1.17
Rubin xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.17 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Rostov come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 4D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rubin sit at 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rubin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Rostov's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Rubin have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rubin's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Rostov are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.31 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and Rubin in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Rubin have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Rubin away?
Rubin's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 0.80 PPG; Rubin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Rubin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won 5-1 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Rostov have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
FC Rostov
1
Draws
3
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Rubin?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 4, Rubin have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when FC Rostov 2-0 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Rubin?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 80%, Rubin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (FC Rostov) and 20% (Rubin).
On the defensive side: Rubin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play Rubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC Rostov's games and 40% of Rubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Rostov vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of FC Rostov's recent games and 20% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Rostov and Rubin tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rubin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Rostov run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Rubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Rubin 5-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.43 xG and Rubin 1.17 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC Rostov beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.05 / defence 1.38 against Rubin attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 43% | Draw 26% | Rubin 31%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 62%, Rubin 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Rubin's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with FC Rostov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rubin (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.