CSKA Moscow 3-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 23 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VEB Arena, CSKA Moscow have gone 3W 1D 1L this season (5 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's away record: 2W 1D 3L from 6 road trips in Premier League this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for CSKA Moscow, 1.60 for Krylia Sovetov — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 36% versus Krylia Sovetov 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 36% | Krylia Sovetov 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.03 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 0.846 / defence 0.836 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.778 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.176. Data: 11 CSKA Moscow games / 11 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 41% | Draw 32% | Krylia Sovetov 26%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Krylia Sovetov 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Krylia Sovetov's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 20% | Krylia Sovetov 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 41% | Draw 32% | Krylia Sovetov 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.03 / Krylia Sovetov 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 0.846 / def 0.836 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.778 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Krylia Sovetov xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
CSKA Moscow 3 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 41% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.78x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.08
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
1.80
0.77
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.77 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 6W 2D 3L from 11 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 5L across 11 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for CSKA Moscow against 1.45 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.27 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 5W 1D 5L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.00 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.40 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
CSKA Moscow
4
Draws
0
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 6, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
CSKA Moscow tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 20%, Krylia Sovetov 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for CSKA Moscow and 40% for Krylia Sovetov.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 60% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 40% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 3-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.03 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.77 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.85 / defence 0.84 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.78 / defence 1.12, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 41% | Draw 32% | Krylia Sovetov 26%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 36%, Krylia Sovetov 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.82 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.