CSKA Moscow 0-0 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this CSKA Moscow vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Khimki travel to VEB Arena to take on CSKA Moscow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, CSKA Moscow have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VEB Arena, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 1D 1L this season (6 games, 2.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena.
Khimki — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game.
CSKA Moscow are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
CSKA Moscow trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Khimki trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 43% versus Khimki 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 43% | Khimki 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.91 xG and Khimki 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 0.976 / defence 0.931 | Khimki attack 0.706 / defence 1.594. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.078. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.594 — this is suppressing CSKA Moscow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 CSKA Moscow games / 14 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 66% | Draw 21% | Khimki 13%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Khimki 7.69. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 33% | Khimki 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 66% | Draw 21% | Khimki 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 43% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.91 / Khimki 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 0.976 / def 0.931 | Khimki attack 0.706 / def 1.594 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Khimki xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Khimki kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Khimki kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Khimki?
CSKA Moscow 0 - 0 Khimki.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Khimki part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 66% chance of winning, Khimki a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Khimki?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Khimki in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Khimki (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from CSKA Moscow's attack rating (0.98) and Khimki's defence rating (1.59), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus CSKA Moscow's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
66%
1.52
21%
4.74
13%
7.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.62
0.71
Khimki xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
7.64
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
32%
3.08
2%
51.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.71 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Khimki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 7W 2D 5L from 14 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khimki, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 6L across 14 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khimki heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — CSKA Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Khimki's away record stands at 0W 1D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khimki's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 0.79 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Khimki in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Khimki in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 7W 2D 5L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while Khimki have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Khimki away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.17 PPG; Khimki away: 0.17 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Khimki in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
CSKA Moscow have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when CSKA Moscow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
CSKA Moscow's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 4, Khimki have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when CSKA Moscow 1-0 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Khimki?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 33%, Khimki 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (CSKA Moscow) and 83% (Khimki). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Khimki in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 50% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of CSKA Moscow's matches and 83% of Khimki's.
Do CSKA Moscow and Khimki tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Khimki in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at CSKA Moscow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow and Khimki finished level at 0-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.91 xG and Khimki 0.71 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. CSKA Moscow fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Khimki attack 0.71 / defence 1.59, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 66% | Draw 21% | Khimki 13%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 43%, Khimki 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Khimki's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Khimki (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.