CSKA Moscow 1-0 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Dynamo travel to VEB Arena to take on CSKA Moscow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow at VEB Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (CSKA Moscow) versus 2.30 (Dynamo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for CSKA Moscow, 1 for Dynamo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Dynamo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
CSKA Moscow trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Dynamo trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 44% versus Dynamo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 40% | Dynamo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.28 xG and Dynamo 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.247 / defence 1.062 | Dynamo attack 1.180 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.188. Data: 25 CSKA Moscow games / 25 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 41%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Dynamo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: CSKA Moscow 30% | Dynamo 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.28 / Dynamo 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.247 / def 1.062 | Dynamo attack 1.180 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Dynamo xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo?
CSKA Moscow 1 - 0 Dynamo.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 31% chance of winning, Dynamo a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Dynamo?
Record (1 meetings): CSKA Moscow 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo 1W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Dynamo in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Dynamo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Dynamo's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus CSKA Moscow's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.61
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.77
1.49
Dynamo xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.49 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, CSKA Moscow have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 13W 5D 7L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo's form line: 16W 4D 5L from 25 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: CSKA Moscow on 1.76 PPG, Dynamo on 2.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, CSKA Moscow have posted 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (7W 3D 2L).
On the road, Dynamo have gone 9W 1D 2L from 12 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.80 scored and 0.96 conceded. Dynamo's attacking output running into CSKA Moscow's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Dynamo in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Dynamo in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 13W 5D 7L in their last 25 games (1.76 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 16W 4D 5L in their last 25 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Dynamo away?
Dynamo's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.00 PPG; Dynamo away: 2.33 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dynamo in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between CSKA Moscow and Dynamo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2026, when Dynamo won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
CSKA Moscow's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
5
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Dynamo?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 4, Dynamo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-4 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 33%, Dynamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (CSKA Moscow) and 58% (Dynamo).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Dynamo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Dynamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 50% of Dynamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 58% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Dynamo tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Dynamo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Dynamo 1-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.28 xG and Dynamo 1.49 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.25 / defence 1.06 against Dynamo attack 1.18 / defence 0.92, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 41%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 40%, Dynamo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dynamo's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.76 PPG, Dynamo 2.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.