CSKA Moscow 2-0 Arsenal Tula – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula meet at VEB Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 4W 2D 2L at VEB Arena — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Arsenal Tula (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal Tula away from home this season: 2W 0D 6L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — CSKA Moscow lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
CSKA Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Arsenal Tula half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 35% versus Arsenal Tula 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 35% | Arsenal Tula 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.56 xG and Arsenal Tula 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 0.737 / defence 0.969 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.908 / defence 1.769. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.129. CSKA Moscow's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arsenal Tula bring a strong defensive rating of 1.769 — this is suppressing CSKA Moscow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 CSKA Moscow games / 17 Arsenal Tula games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 50% | Draw 27% | Arsenal Tula 23%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Arsenal Tula 4.35. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: CSKA Moscow 25% | Arsenal Tula 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 50% | Draw 27% | Arsenal Tula 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.56 / Arsenal Tula 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 0.737 / def 0.969 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.908 / def 1.769 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Arsenal Tula xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
CSKA Moscow 2 - 0 Arsenal Tula.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 50% chance of winning, Arsenal Tula a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula?
Record (1 meetings): CSKA Moscow 0W | Draws 1 | Arsenal Tula 0W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Arsenal Tula (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from CSKA Moscow's attack rating (0.74) and Arsenal Tula's defence rating (1.77), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arsenal Tula's attack (0.91x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.74
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.55
0.99
Arsenal Tula xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
20.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.99 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, CSKA Moscow have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 8W 3D 6L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal Tula's form line: 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, CSKA Moscow are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arsenal Tula.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, CSKA Moscow have posted 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
On the road, Arsenal Tula have gone 2W 0D 6L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Arsenal Tula are on 1.24 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal Tula in 71%.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Arsenal Tula
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 8W 3D 6L in their last 17 games (1.59 PPG), while Arsenal Tula have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Arsenal Tula away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 1.75 PPG; Arsenal Tula away: 0.75 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Arsenal Tula been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Arsenal Tula in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
0
Arsenal Tula
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula?
From 2 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 1, Arsenal Tula have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula last play each other?
They last met on 11 December 2021, when CSKA Moscow 2-0 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 25%, Arsenal Tula 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (CSKA Moscow) and 88% (Arsenal Tula). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; CSKA Moscow have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Arsenal Tula away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Arsenal Tula?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 75% of Arsenal Tula's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of CSKA Moscow's matches and 88% of Arsenal Tula's.
Do CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Arsenal Tula in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Arsenal Tula.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Arsenal Tula 2-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.56 xG and Arsenal Tula 0.99 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Arsenal Tula landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Arsenal Tula attack 0.91 / defence 1.77, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 50% | Draw 27% | Arsenal Tula 23%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 35%, Arsenal Tula 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.