Baltika 2-3 Zenit – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Zenit (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baltika face Zenit.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rostec Arena plays host to Baltika versus Zenit in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Baltika's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baltika have posted 3W 2D 5L at Rostec Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Zenit (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zenit have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Zenit are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Zenit have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Baltika's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Zenit winning.
It is worth noting that Zenit have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Baltika goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Zenit goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 42% versus Zenit 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 34% | Zenit 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 0.84 xG and Zenit 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.853 / defence 0.971 | Zenit attack 1.221 / defence 0.714. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.277. Zenit's defence strength of 0.714 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Zenit have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Baltika games / 38 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 19% | Draw 30% | Zenit 51%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | Zenit 1.96. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zenit if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Baltika 50% | Zenit 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Sep 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 19% | Draw 30% | Zenit 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Baltika 0.84 / Zenit 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.853 / def 0.971 | Zenit attack 1.221 / def 0.714 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Zenit (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Zenit xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Zenit kick off?
Baltika vs Zenit kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Zenit?
Baltika 2 - 3 Zenit.
Where is Baltika vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Zenit part of?
Baltika vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 19% chance of winning, Zenit a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Baltika and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Zenit?
Record (4 meetings): Baltika 0W | Draws 1 | Zenit 3W.
What form are Baltika and Zenit in?
Baltika (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Zenit (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Baltika's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Zenit's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Zenit's attack (1.22x) against Baltika's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
19%
5.36
30%
3.31
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.35
1.51
Zenit xG
5.36
19%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
4%
24.37
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Baltika and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Baltika and 1.51 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Baltika come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 15D 9L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.18 PPG from 38 outings (25W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Baltika — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Baltika's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 1.89 points per game from 19 outings (10W 6D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baltika are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 1.82 scored and 0.68 conceded. Zenit's attacking output running into Baltika's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Zenit in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Zenit in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 14W 15D 9L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Zenit have gone 25W 8D 5L in their last 38 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.58 PPG; Zenit away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Baltika or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Zenit in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Zenit go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baltika have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zenit — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Baltika
1
Draws
4
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Zenit?
From 5 meetings on record, Baltika have won 0, Zenit have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2026, when Baltika 2-3 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 42%, Zenit 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Baltika) and 42% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Zenit in 53%; Baltika have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Zenit?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Baltika's recent matches and 37% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Baltika's recent games and 42% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Zenit tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Zenit in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Baltika 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Baltika 2-3 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 0.84 xG and Zenit 1.51 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Baltika beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zenit outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Zenit attack 1.22 / defence 0.71, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 19% | Draw 30% | Zenit 51%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 34%, Zenit 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Zenit's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baltika (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.