Baltika 2-0 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Baltika take on Nizhny Novgorod.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Baltika welcome Nizhny Novgorod to Rostec Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Baltika have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Rostec Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Baltika are significantly better at Rostec Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nizhny Novgorod stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Nizhny Novgorod — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Baltika's 30% rate and Nizhny Novgorod's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Baltika have won 0, Nizhny Novgorod 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Baltika in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Nizhny Novgorod in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Baltika 30% | Nizhny Novgorod 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 30% | Nizhny Novgorod 15%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 0.78 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.664 / defence 1.056 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.827 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.069. Baltika's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Baltika games / 50 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 26% | Draw 39% | Nizhny Novgorod 35%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.85 | Draw 2.56 | Nizhny Novgorod 2.86. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.72 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Baltika 30% | Nizhny Novgorod 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 26% | Draw 39% | Nizhny Novgorod 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 36% | xG Baltika 0.78 / Nizhny Novgorod 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.664 / def 1.056 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.827 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Nizhny Novgorod xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Baltika 2 - 0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 26% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 35% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod?
Record (1 meetings): Baltika 0W | Draws 1 | Nizhny Novgorod 0W.
What form are Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Baltika (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Baltika's attack rating (0.66) and Nizhny Novgorod's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nizhny Novgorod's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.79
39%
2.57
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Baltika xG
Total xG
1.72
0.93
Nizhny Novgorod xG
3.79
26%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 16.8 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Baltika and 0.93 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baltika's recent record stands at 3W 5D 12L from 20 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nizhny Novgorod, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 8L across 20 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nizhny Novgorod by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baltika heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 3W 3D 4L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.70 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nizhny Novgorod's away record stands at 1W 2D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nizhny Novgorod's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 0.85 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baltika have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Nizhny Novgorod in 25%.
Defensively: Nizhny Novgorod in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 3W 5D 12L in their last 20 games (0.70 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Baltika's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.20 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Baltika or Nizhny Novgorod been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Nizhny Novgorod in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Baltika's record when hosting Nizhny Novgorod specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Baltika
3
Draws
0
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 4 meetings on record, Baltika have won 1, Nizhny Novgorod have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Baltika 2-2 Nizhny Novgorod.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Baltika 30% BTTS, Nizhny Novgorod 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Baltika and 10% for Nizhny Novgorod.
On the defensive side: Baltika have failed to score in 50% of games; Nizhny Novgorod in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Nizhny Novgorod?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Baltika's recent matches and 20% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Baltika's recent games and 10% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baltika cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 0.78 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.93 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Baltika beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nizhny Novgorod landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.66 / defence 1.06 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 26% | Draw 39% | Nizhny Novgorod 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Baltika win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 30%, Nizhny Novgorod 15%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nizhny Novgorod arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Baltika winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.