Baltika 2-1 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fakel at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Fakel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baltika host Fakel at Rostec Arena in Premier League (matchday 3). Kick-off is Sunday 6 August 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 2 games, Baltika have gone 0W 0D 2L — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Fakel — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fakel's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fakel — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.30 xG and Fakel 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | Fakel attack 0.855 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.447. Data: built from Baltika's last 2 games and Fakel's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Baltika 33% | Draw 29% | Fakel 38%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.07 | Draw 3.44 | Fakel 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fakel as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fakel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Baltika 2 games, Fakel 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, matchday 3 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 33% | Draw 29% | Fakel 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Baltika 1.30 / Fakel 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.858 / def 1.150 | Fakel attack 0.855 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Fakel (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Fakel xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Fakel FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Fakel kick off?
Baltika vs Fakel kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Fakel?
Baltika 2 - 1 Fakel.
Where is Baltika vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Fakel part of?
Baltika vs Fakel is a Premier League fixture (matchday 3) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 33% chance of winning, Fakel a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Baltika and Fakel will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baltika vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baltika's attack rating (0.86) and Fakel's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fakel's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 2 games and Fakel's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
33%
3.07
29%
3.44
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.72
1.42
Fakel xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
8%
12.72
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Fakel Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Baltika and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Baltika and 1.42 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Baltika have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five.
Fakel's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baltika on 0.00 PPG, Fakel on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Baltika are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fakel in 100%.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Early Season
Fakel
Early Season
Baltika (Home) vs Fakel (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Early Season
Fakel
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Baltika vs Fakel Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Fakel in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Fakel have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Baltika
2
Draws
0
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Fakel H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Fakel?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 1, Fakel have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Fakel last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Fakel 2-2 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Fakel?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Fakel Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Fakel matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Baltika's games and 100% of Fakel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Baltika and Fakel matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Baltika's matches and 100% of Fakel's.
Do Baltika and Fakel matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Baltika's recent matches and 100% of Fakel's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baltika defy the odds to beat Fakel 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika beat Fakel 2-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.30 xG and Fakel 1.42 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Fakel attack 0.85 / defence 0.95, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 33% | Draw 29% | Fakel 38%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Baltika win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 50%, Fakel 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baltika 0.00 PPG, Fakel 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baltika win broke the near-deadlock. Baltika scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fakel conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.