Akhmat 0-2 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zenit at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Zenit fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host Zenit at Akhmat Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's home record at Akhmat Arena: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zenit have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akhmat 1.70 PPG, Zenit 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Akhmat register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zenit in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Akhmat have won 0, Zenit 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Zenit winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Zenit in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Akhmat 61% and Zenit 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 61% | Zenit 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.07 xG and Zenit 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 1.125 / defence 1.292 | Zenit attack 0.768 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.207. Data: 23 Akhmat games / 23 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 32% | Draw 30% | Zenit 38%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Zenit 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zenit at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Akhmat 60% | Zenit 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 32% | Draw 30% | Zenit 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Akhmat 1.07 / Zenit 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 1.125 / def 1.292 | Zenit attack 0.768 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Zenit (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Zenit xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Zenit kick off?
Akhmat vs Zenit kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Zenit?
Akhmat 0 - 2 Zenit.
Where is Akhmat vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Zenit part of?
Akhmat vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 32% chance of winning, Zenit a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Akhmat and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Zenit?
Record (1 meetings): Akhmat 0W | Draws 0 | Zenit 1W.
What form are Akhmat and Zenit in?
Akhmat (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Zenit (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 1.12x the league average against Zenit's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
32%
3.13
30%
3.35
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.27
1.20
Zenit xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.20 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Akhmat come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 2D 11L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.13 PPG from 23 outings (14W 7D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Akhmat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Akhmat's home form reads 7W 0D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 1.64 points per game from 11 outings (4W 6D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zenit's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Akhmat are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.30 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Zenit in 74%.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Zenit in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 10W 2D 11L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while Zenit have gone 14W 7D 2L in their last 23 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Zenit away?
Akhmat's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.91 PPG; Zenit away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Akhmat's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Akhmat
1
Draws
7
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 2, Zenit have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Zenit 2-0 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zenit see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Akhmat at 64%, Zenit at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Akhmat) and 36% (Zenit).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Akhmat's games and 73% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Akhmat's recent games and 36% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Zenit tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Zenit in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Akhmat 0-2 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.07 xG and Zenit 1.20 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Akhmat fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Zenit outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.12 / defence 1.29 against Zenit attack 0.77 / defence 0.93, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 32% | Draw 30% | Zenit 38%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 61%, Zenit 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.