Akhmat 1-2 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Akhmat at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Krylia Sovetov make the trip to Akhmat Arena to face Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Akhmat have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Akhmat have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Akhmat Arena, Akhmat have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Akhmat's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Akhmat 2W, Krylia Sovetov 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Akhmat winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Akhmat half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 58% versus Krylia Sovetov 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 53% | Krylia Sovetov 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.44 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.876 / defence 0.817 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.048 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.274. Data: 36 Akhmat games / 36 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 43% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 27%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Krylia Sovetov 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akhmat at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 60% | Krylia Sovetov 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 43% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Akhmat 1.44 / Krylia Sovetov 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.876 / def 0.817 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.048 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Krylia Sovetov xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Akhmat 1 - 2 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 43% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (2 meetings): Akhmat 2W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov in?
Akhmat (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Akhmat's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (1.05x) against Akhmat's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
43%
2.32
30%
3.32
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.53
1.09
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
6%
15.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.09 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akhmat's recent record stands at 15W 5D 16L from 36 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Akhmat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 15L across 36 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Akhmat against 1.31 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 10W 2D 6L from 18 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 6W 3D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 15W 5D 16L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 8D 15L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Akhmat's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.78 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Akhmat
2
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 5, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-2 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 56%, Krylia Sovetov 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Akhmat) and 50% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Akhmat's games and 56% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Akhmat's recent games and 50% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Krylia Sovetov defy the odds to beat Akhmat 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Akhmat 1-2 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.44 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.09 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 43% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 27%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 53%, Krylia Sovetov 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.39 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.