Akhmat 3-0 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Akhmat at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akhmat vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host Khimki at Akhmat Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Akhmat have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 5W 0D 5L at Akhmat Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Akhmat Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khimki stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Akhmat carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Akhmat register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Khimki in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Akhmat have won 2, Khimki 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with Akhmat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Akhmat trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Khimki trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 61% versus Khimki 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 58% | Khimki 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.92 xG and Khimki 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.952 / defence 0.913 | Khimki attack 0.788 / defence 1.393. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.413. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.393 — this is suppressing Akhmat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Akhmat games / 57 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 58% | Draw 24% | Khimki 19%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Khimki 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Akhmat (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akhmat at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 60% | Khimki 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 58% | Draw 24% | Khimki 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Akhmat 1.92 / Khimki 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.952 / def 0.913 | Khimki attack 0.788 / def 1.393 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Khimki xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Khimki kick off?
Akhmat vs Khimki kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Khimki?
Akhmat 3 - 0 Khimki.
Where is Akhmat vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Khimki part of?
Akhmat vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 58% chance of winning, Khimki a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Akhmat and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Khimki?
Record (3 meetings): Akhmat 2W | Draws 0 | Khimki 1W.
What form are Akhmat and Khimki in?
Akhmat (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Khimki (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.95x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
58%
1.74
24%
4.25
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.94
1.02
Khimki xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
3%
36.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.02 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Khimki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akhmat come into this having played 57 games, going 27W 7D 23L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 0.88 PPG from 57 outings (11W 17D 29L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Khimki — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Akhmat's home form reads 15W 2D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Khimki have taken 0.50 points per game from 28 outings (3W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Akhmat are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.05 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Khimki in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 27W 7D 23L in their last 57 games (1.54 PPG), while Khimki have gone 11W 17D 29L in their last 57 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Khimki away?
Akhmat's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.68 PPG; Khimki away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Akhmat and Khimki runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Akhmat won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Akhmat's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Akhmat
2
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 3, Khimki have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Khimki 1-1 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Khimki?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 57%, Khimki 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Akhmat and 68% for Khimki. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khimki in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Khimki?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Akhmat's games and 57% of Khimki's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Akhmat's matches and 68% of Khimki's.
Do Akhmat and Khimki tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Khimki in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Akhmat run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Khimki 3-0 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.92 xG and Khimki 1.02 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Akhmat beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khimki landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Khimki attack 0.79 / defence 1.39, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 58% | Draw 24% | Khimki 19%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 58%, Khimki 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Khimki's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Akhmat arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.