Akhmat 0-0 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 55%, yet in-form FC Rostov provide a compelling counter-argument — this Akhmat vs FC Rostov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Akhmat Arena plays host to Akhmat versus FC Rostov in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Akhmat (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Akhmat's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Akhmat are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Rostov's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Rostov away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Rostov are 0.70 PPG clear of Akhmat over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Akhmat's last 10 home games and FC Rostov's last 10 away games) — Akhmat have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Rostov in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Akhmat, 3 for FC Rostov and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Akhmat 0–3 FC Rostov — a FC Rostov win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
FC Rostov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Akhmat 66% and FC Rostov 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 64% | FC Rostov 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Akhmat surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while FC Rostov have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.84 xG and FC Rostov 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.993 / defence 1.100 | FC Rostov attack 0.916 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.036. FC Rostov's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Akhmat's projected output up. Data: built from Akhmat's last 47 games and FC Rostov's last 47.
Result probabilities: Akhmat 55% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 21%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 1.80 | Draw 4.20 | FC Rostov 4.82. The model has a clear lean to Akhmat (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akhmat at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Rostov (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Akhmat's last 10 home games and FC Rostov's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Akhmat 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Rostov 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 55% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Akhmat 1.84 / FC Rostov 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.993 / def 1.100 | FC Rostov attack 0.916 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC Rostov xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Akhmat vs FC Rostov FAQs
What time does Akhmat vs FC Rostov kick off?
Akhmat vs FC Rostov kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Akhmat 0 - 0 FC Rostov.
Where is Akhmat vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs FC Rostov part of?
Akhmat vs FC Rostov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 55% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Akhmat and FC Rostov will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Akhmat vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Akhmat's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.92x) against Akhmat's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Akhmat's last 47 games and FC Rostov's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.20
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.88
1.04
FC Rostov xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
30.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Akhmat vs FC Rostov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Akhmat and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.04 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akhmat's recent record stands at 19W 9D 19L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
FC Rostov, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 14L across 47 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Akhmat against 1.55 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 9W 5D 9L from their last 23 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Rostov's away record stands at 6W 7D 10L across their last 23 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Rostov's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.53 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; FC Rostov in 68%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
Akhmat (Home) vs FC Rostov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Akhmat
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Akhmat vs FC Rostov Form FAQs
What form are Akhmat and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 19W 9D 19L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 20W 13D 14L in their last 47 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or FC Rostov away?
Akhmat's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.39 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Akhmat and FC Rostov, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Akhmat have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won FC Rostov 3-0 Akhmat on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 4W 1D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Akhmat
2
Draws
3
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Akhmat vs FC Rostov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and FC Rostov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Akhmat have won 5, FC Rostov have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and FC Rostov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Akhmat 4-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and FC Rostov?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Akhmat, 70% for FC Rostov — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Akhmat and 61% for FC Rostov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Akhmat vs FC Rostov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Akhmat and FC Rostov matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Akhmat's games and 70% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Akhmat and FC Rostov matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Akhmat's matches and 61% of FC Rostov's.
Do Akhmat and FC Rostov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Akhmat's recent matches and 74% of FC Rostov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Akhmat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Akhmat and FC Rostov drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.84 xG and FC Rostov 1.04 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Akhmat fell 1.8 short of their projected output. FC Rostov landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.99 / defence 1.10 against FC Rostov attack 0.92 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 55% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 21%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 64%, FC Rostov 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Rostov's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.40 PPG, FC Rostov 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.