Akhmat 1-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 44%, yet in-form CSKA Moscow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Akhmat-Arena to face Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 6W 1D 3L at Akhmat-Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Akhmat are significantly better at Akhmat-Arena than their overall form suggests.
CSKA Moscow have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
CSKA Moscow arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, CSKA Moscow have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Akhmat's 2, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 1–2 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. CSKA Moscow have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 56% versus CSKA Moscow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 48% | CSKA Moscow 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.41 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 1.006 / defence 1.078 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.045 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 0.975. Data: 48 Akhmat games / 48 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 44% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 29%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | CSKA Moscow 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Akhmat as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form CSKA Moscow (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Akhmat 50% | CSKA Moscow 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Akhmat-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 44% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Akhmat 1.41 / CSKA Moscow 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 1.006 / def 1.078 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.045 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.441 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.10
CSKA Moscow xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Akhmat-Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Akhmat 1 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat-Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 44% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Akhmat and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
Record (9 meetings): Akhmat 2W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 6W.
What form are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow in?
Akhmat (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 1.01x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.04x) against Akhmat's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.68
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.51
1.10
CSKA Moscow xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.10 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akhmat's recent record stands at 11W 15D 22L from 48 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 9L across 48 games — 1.98 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 9W 8D 7L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 12W 7D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.60 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 11W 15D 22L in their last 48 games (1.00 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 28W 11D 9L in their last 48 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.46 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Akhmat or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 3-0 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Akhmat
1
Draws
6
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 3, CSKA Moscow have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Akhmat 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 58%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Akhmat) and 46% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Akhmat's recent matches and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Akhmat's recent games and 46% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Akhmat edge out CSKA Moscow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.41 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.10 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 44% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 29%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 48%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Akhmat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.