Akhmat 1-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Akhmat face CSKA Moscow.

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Analysis

CSKA Moscow make the trip to Akhmat Arena to face Akhmat in Premier League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 15:30 UK time.

Current Form

Akhmat's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Akhmat have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

CSKA Moscow have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

CSKA Moscow arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to CSKA Moscow, who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Akhmat 0–3 CSKA Moscow — a CSKA Moscow win.

The H2H data backs the away side. CSKA Moscow have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 52% versus CSKA Moscow 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 45% | CSKA Moscow 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Akhmat surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while CSKA Moscow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 0.87 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.895 / defence 0.958 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.183 / defence 0.656. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.082. CSKA Moscow bring a tight defence (rating 0.656, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Akhmat's projected output down. Data: built from Akhmat's last 56 games and CSKA Moscow's last 56.

Result probabilities: Akhmat 23% | Draw 35% | CSKA Moscow 42%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 4.27 | Draw 2.85 | CSKA Moscow 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Akhmat's last 10 home games and CSKA Moscow's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Akhmat 60% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 50% (last 10 away games).

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