Vizela 2-5 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sporting CP (64%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Vizela face Sporting CP.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Vizela plays host to Vizela versus Sporting CP in Primeira Liga (matchday 18). Kick-off: Thursday 18 January 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Vizela have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Vizela have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sporting CP's record over their last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sporting CP's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sporting CP arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Vizela's last 10 home games and Sporting CP's last 10 away games) — Vizela have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sporting CP in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Sporting CP have the stronger record — 5 wins to Vizela's 0, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Vizela 2–3 Sporting CP — a Sporting CP win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sporting CP have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Vizela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sporting CP goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 43% versus Sporting CP 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 43% | Sporting CP 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vizela surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Sporting CP have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.94 xG and Sporting CP 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.726 / defence 1.247 | Sporting CP attack 1.319 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.286. Vizela's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Sporting CP have an above-average attack rating of 1.319, which lifts their away xG to 2.12. Vizela's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sporting CP's projected output up. Data: built from Vizela's last 51 games and Sporting CP's last 51.
Result probabilities: Vizela 16% | Draw 20% | Sporting CP 64%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 6.38 | Draw 4.95 | Sporting CP 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Vizela's last 10 home games and Sporting CP's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vizela 60% (last 10 home games) | Sporting CP 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 18 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Thursday 18 January 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 16% | Draw 20% | Sporting CP 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Vizela 0.94 / Sporting CP 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.726 / def 1.247 | Sporting CP attack 1.319 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Sporting CP xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vizela vs Sporting CP FAQs
What time does Vizela vs Sporting CP kick off?
Vizela vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Thursday 18 January 2024 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Sporting CP?
Vizela 2 - 5 Sporting CP.
Where is Vizela vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Sporting CP part of?
Vizela vs Sporting CP is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 18) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 16% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 64% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vizela and Sporting CP will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vizela vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vizela's attack at 0.73x the league average against Sporting CP's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.32x) against Vizela's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 2.12.
These ratings are built from Vizela's last 51 games and Sporting CP's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
16%
6.38
20%
4.95
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Vizela xG
Total xG
3.06
2.12
Sporting CP xG
6.38
16%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
12%
8.30
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
2%
52.95
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vizela vs Sporting CP Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Vizela and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Vizela and 2.12 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Sporting CP?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vizela come into this having played 51 games, going 13W 14D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Sporting CP sit at 2.29 PPG from 51 outings (37W 6D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Vizela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vizela's home form reads 6W 7D 12L across their last 25 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sporting CP have taken 1.96 points per game from their last 25 away games (15W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vizela are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.18 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
Vizela (Home) vs Sporting CP (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vizela
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Vizela vs Sporting CP Form FAQs
What form are Vizela and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 13W 14D 24L in their last 51 games (1.04 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 37W 6D 8L in their last 51 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.00 PPG; Sporting CP away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Vizela or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 18 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sporting CP have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won Sporting CP 3-0 Vizela on 6 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
0
Draws
6
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Vizela vs Sporting CP H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Sporting CP?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vizela have won 0, Sporting CP have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Sporting CP last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2024: Vizela 2-5 Sporting CP.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 44%, Sporting CP 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Vizela) and 64% (Sporting CP). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vizela keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sporting CP in 32%; Vizela have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vizela vs Sporting CP Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vizela and Sporting CP matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Vizela's recent matches and 56% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vizela and Sporting CP matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Vizela's matches and 64% of Sporting CP's.
Do Vizela and Sporting CP matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Vizela's recent matches and 72% of Sporting CP's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Vizela 2-5 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.94 xG and Sporting CP 2.12 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Vizela beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sporting CP outscored their 2.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.73 / defence 1.25 against Sporting CP attack 1.32 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 16% | Draw 20% | Sporting CP 64%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 43%, Sporting CP 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sporting CP's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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