Vizela 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vizela vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees SC Braga travel to Estádio Do Vizela to take on Vizela. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022, 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vizela stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Vizela at Estádio Do Vizela this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, SC Braga have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, SC Braga have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vizela have won 0, SC Braga 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2021, ended 1–4 with SC Braga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vizela in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
SC Braga in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 64% versus SC Braga 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 46% | SC Braga 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.90 xG and SC Braga 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.802 / defence 1.209 | SC Braga attack 1.014 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.246. Data: 28 Vizela games / 28 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 21% | Draw 29% | SC Braga 51%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | SC Braga 1.96. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Vizela 40% | SC Braga 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 21% | Draw 29% | SC Braga 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Vizela 0.90 / SC Braga 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.802 / def 1.209 | SC Braga attack 1.014 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.53
SC Braga xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs SC Braga kick off?
Vizela vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs SC Braga?
Vizela 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Vizela vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs SC Braga part of?
Vizela vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 21% chance of winning, SC Braga a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vizela and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and SC Braga?
Record (1 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 1W.
What form are Vizela and SC Braga in?
Vizela (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vizela's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Vizela's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
21%
4.84
29%
3.50
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.42
1.53
SC Braga xG
4.84
21%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
4%
22.31
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Vizela and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Vizela and 1.53 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vizela come into this having played 28 games, going 6W 11D 11L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (15W 7D 6L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Vizela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vizela's home form reads 2W 6D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 1.85 points per game from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vizela are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.64 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: SC Braga in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Current Season
SC Braga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 6W 11D 11L in their last 28 games (1.04 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 15W 7D 6L in their last 28 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 0.92 PPG; SC Braga away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Vizela or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, SC Braga in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SC Braga have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2023, when SC Braga won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vizela's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
0
Draws
6
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and SC Braga?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, SC Braga have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when SC Braga 2-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 54%, SC Braga 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Vizela and 46% for SC Braga.
On the defensive side: SC Braga in 38%; Vizela have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Vizela's recent matches and 54% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Vizela's recent games and 46% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and SC Braga tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Vizela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Vizela 0-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.90 xG and SC Braga 1.53 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vizela fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against SC Braga attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 21% | Draw 29% | SC Braga 51%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 46%, SC Braga 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.