Vizela 0-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and Estoril meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Monday 12 September 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vizela have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estádio Do Vizela — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Estoril have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Vizela against 1.20 for Estoril. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vizela lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Vizela winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 64% versus Estoril 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 46% | Estoril 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.06 xG and Estoril 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.909 / defence 1.062 | Estoril attack 0.965 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.165. Data: 39 Vizela games / 39 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 32% | Draw 29% | Estoril 39%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Estoril 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 60% | Estoril 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 32% | Draw 29% | Estoril 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Vizela 1.06 / Estoril 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.909 / def 1.062 | Estoril attack 0.965 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Estoril (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Estoril xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Estoril kick off?
Vizela vs Estoril kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Estoril?
Vizela 0 - 1 Estoril.
Where is Vizela vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Estoril part of?
Vizela vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 32% chance of winning, Estoril a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vizela and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Estoril?
Record (2 meetings): Vizela 1W | Draws 1 | Estoril 0W.
What form are Vizela and Estoril in?
Vizela (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Estoril (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vizela's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Estoril's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.96x) against Vizela's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
32%
3.08
29%
3.50
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.26
1.19
Estoril xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vizela and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Vizela and 1.19 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vizela's recent record stands at 8W 14D 17L from 39 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estoril, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 15L across 39 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Vizela against 1.18 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 4W 8D 7L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estoril's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.10 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Early Season
Estoril
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Estoril in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 8W 14D 17L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while Estoril have gone 11W 13D 15L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Estoril away?
Estoril's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.05 PPG; Estoril away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Vizela or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Estoril in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vizela won 0-3 on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
3
Draws
1
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Estoril?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 2, Estoril have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Vizela 3-3 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Estoril?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 58%, Estoril 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Vizela and 37% for Estoril.
On the defensive side: Estoril in 32%; Vizela have failed to score in 37% of games; Estoril in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Vizela's recent matches and 37% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Vizela's recent games and 37% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Estoril tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Estoril in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Vizela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Vizela 0-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.06 xG and Estoril 1.19 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vizela fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Estoril attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 32% | Draw 29% | Estoril 39%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 46%, Estoril 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estoril's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 0.97 PPG, Estoril 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.