Vizela 3-3 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and Estoril meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vizela have posted 1W 2D 7L at Estádio Do Vizela — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Estoril have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Estoril are 0.50 PPG clear of Vizela in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vizela lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 43% versus Estoril 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 45% | Estoril 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.38 xG and Estoril 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.739 / defence 1.398 | Estoril attack 0.954 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.227. Vizela's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estoril bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Vizela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Vizela games / 56 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 32% | Draw 24% | Estoril 44%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Estoril 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 50% | Estoril 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 32% | Draw 24% | Estoril 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Vizela 1.38 / Estoril 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.739 / def 1.398 | Estoril attack 0.954 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Estoril (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Estoril xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Estoril kick off?
Vizela vs Estoril kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Estoril?
Vizela 3 - 3 Estoril.
Where is Vizela vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Estoril part of?
Vizela vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 32% chance of winning, Estoril a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Vizela and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Estoril?
Record (5 meetings): Vizela 2W | Draws 2 | Estoril 1W.
What form are Vizela and Estoril in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Estoril (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vizela's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Estoril's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.95x) against Vizela's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
32%
3.08
24%
4.17
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Vizela xG
Total xG
3.02
1.64
Estoril xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
6%
15.81
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Vizela and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Vizela and 1.64 for Estoril, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vizela's recent record stands at 14W 14D 28L from 56 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 32L across 56 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Vizela against 1.00 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 6W 7D 15L from 28 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estoril's away record stands at 4W 5D 19L across 28 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.23 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Estoril in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 14W 14D 28L in their last 56 games (1.00 PPG), while Estoril have gone 16W 8D 32L in their last 56 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Estoril away?
Vizela's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 0.89 PPG; Estoril away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Vizela or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Estoril in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vizela won 0-3 on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
3
Draws
1
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Estoril?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 2, Estoril have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Vizela 3-3 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Estoril?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 43%, Estoril 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vizela) and 43% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 43% of games; Estoril in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Vizela's recent matches and 54% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vizela's recent games and 43% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Estoril tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Estoril in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vizela and Estoril share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 23, as Vizela and Estoril drew 3-3 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.38 xG and Estoril 1.64 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Vizela beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estoril outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.74 / defence 1.40 against Estoril attack 0.95 / defence 1.22, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 32% | Draw 24% | Estoril 44%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 45%, Estoril 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Estoril's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.00 PPG, Estoril 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.