Vizela 0-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Chaves travel to Estádio Do Vizela to take on Vizela. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 February 2023, 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Vizela — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Do Vizela, Vizela have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vizela at 1.30 PPG versus Chaves's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vizela, 0 for Chaves and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vizela trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Chaves trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 43% versus Chaves 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vizela 43% | Chaves 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.78 xG and Chaves 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 1.136 / defence 0.895 | Chaves attack 0.904 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 0.997. Data: 53 Vizela games / 19 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 60% | Draw 23% | Chaves 17%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Chaves 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Vizela (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vizela as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 30% | Chaves 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 60% | Draw 23% | Chaves 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 46% | xG Vizela 1.78 / Chaves 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 1.136 / def 0.895 | Chaves attack 0.904 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.427 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Vizela (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Chaves xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Chaves kick off?
Vizela vs Chaves kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Chaves?
Vizela 0 - 0 Chaves.
Where is Vizela vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Chaves part of?
Vizela vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 60% chance of winning, Chaves a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vizela and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Chaves?
Record (1 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 1 | Chaves 0W.
What form are Vizela and Chaves in?
Vizela (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Chaves (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vizela's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Chaves's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Vizela's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
60%
1.65
23%
4.37
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.59
0.81
Chaves xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
3%
35.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Vizela and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Vizela and 0.81 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Chaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Vizela have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 7W 4D 10L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves's form line: 7W 7D 7L from 21 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vizela on 1.19 PPG, Chaves on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vizela have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
On the road, Chaves have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Vizela are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.00 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Chaves in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Chaves have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Chaves away?
Vizela's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.40 PPG; Chaves away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vizela and Chaves runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chaves have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Vizela's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vizela
2
Draws
2
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, Chaves have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2024, when Vizela 0-1 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Chaves?
Chaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 30%, Chaves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Vizela) and 50% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 40% of games; Chaves in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Vizela's recent matches and 50% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Vizela's recent games and 50% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Chaves tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Chaves in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vizela's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 20, as Vizela and Chaves drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.78 xG and Chaves 0.81 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vizela fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Chaves landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against Chaves attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 60% | Draw 23% | Chaves 17%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 43%, Chaves 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chaves's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.19 PPG, Chaves 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.