Tondela 3-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tondela vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Tondela welcome Santa Clara to Estádio João Cardoso. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 0.68 xG and Santa Clara 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Santa Clara attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.699 / away 1.518. Data: 0 Tondela games / 0 Santa Clara games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tondela 14% | Draw 33% | Santa Clara 53%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 7.14 | Draw 3.03 | Santa Clara 1.89. Santa Clara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santa Clara at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 14% | Draw 33% | Santa Clara 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Tondela 0.68 / Santa Clara 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Santa Clara attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.699 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Santa Clara xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tondela vs Santa Clara kick off?
Tondela vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs Santa Clara?
Tondela 3 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is Tondela vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs Santa Clara part of?
Tondela vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 14% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 53% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Tondela and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Tondela vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Santa Clara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tondela and Santa Clara in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tondela's attack rating (0.85) and Santa Clara's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Tondela's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
14%
7.33
33%
3.00
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Tondela xG
Total xG
2.17
1.48
Santa Clara xG
7.33
14%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
51%
1.98
Win to Nil
3%
32.31
27%
3.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 17.0 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Tondela and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Tondela and 1.48 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Pre-Season
Santa Clara
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tondela and Santa Clara runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2021, when Tondela won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tondela's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Tondela
2
Draws
0
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Santa Clara?
From 4 meetings on record, Tondela have won 2, Santa Clara have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tondela and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Tondela 2-2 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and Santa Clara?
Tondela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Tondela run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Santa Clara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela beat Santa Clara 3-0 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 0.68 xG and Santa Clara 1.48 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tondela beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Santa Clara landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Santa Clara attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 14% | Draw 33% | Santa Clara 53%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Tondela win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.