Tondela 0-3 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tondela vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio João Cardoso to face Tondela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tondela have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela's home record at Estádio João Cardoso: 3W 0D 4L from 7 Primeira Liga appearances (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GIL Vicente (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Tondela against 1.30 for GIL Vicente. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Tondela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 57% versus GIL Vicente 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tondela 71% | GIL Vicente 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 1.27 xG and GIL Vicente 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 1.028 / defence 1.327 | GIL Vicente attack 0.855 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.364. Data: 14 Tondela games / 15 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tondela 30% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 43%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | GIL Vicente 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Tondela 57% | GIL Vicente 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 30% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Tondela 1.27 / GIL Vicente 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 1.028 / def 1.327 | GIL Vicente attack 0.855 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
1.55
GIL Vicente xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tondela vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Tondela vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs GIL Vicente?
Tondela 0 - 3 GIL Vicente.
Where is Tondela vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs GIL Vicente part of?
Tondela vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 30% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tondela and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Tondela vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and GIL Vicente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tondela and GIL Vicente in?
Tondela (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tondela's attack at 1.03x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.85x) against Tondela's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
30%
3.31
27%
3.70
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Tondela xG
Total xG
2.82
1.55
GIL Vicente xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
6%
15.55
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tondela and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Tondela and 1.55 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tondela come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 0D 10L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Tondela against 1.21 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Tondela's home form reads 3W 0D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Tondela are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.21 PPG overall record — GIL Vicente travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tondela are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.21 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tondela and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Tondela have gone 4W 0D 10L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tondela at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tondela at home: 1.29 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 0-3 on 28 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tondela have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Tondela
1
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and GIL Vicente?
From 4 meetings on record, Tondela have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tondela and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Tondela 2-2 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tondela 57%, GIL Vicente 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Tondela and 43% for GIL Vicente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tondela have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tondela play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Tondela's games and 57% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tondela vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Tondela's matches and 43% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Tondela and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Tondela have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant GIL Vicente run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Tondela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Tondela 0-3 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.27 xG and GIL Vicente 1.55 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Tondela fell 1.3 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 1.03 / defence 1.33 against GIL Vicente attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 30% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 43%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 71%, GIL Vicente 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tondela's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tondela 0.86 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Tondela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.