Sporting CP 1-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sporting CP (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sporting CP face Famalicao.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sporting CP and Famalicao meet at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sporting CP's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP's home record at Estádio José Alvalade: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Famalicao (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Sporting CP's favour (2.40 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Sporting CP have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Famalicao in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Sporting CP are the stronger side on paper — 8 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Sporting CP winning.
The historical record gives Sporting CP a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 53% versus Famalicao 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 67% | Famalicao 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 2.45 xG and Famalicao 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.521 / defence 0.655 | Famalicao attack 0.751 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.219. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack strength of 1.521 — their λ of 2.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sporting CP's defence rating of 0.655 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Sporting CP games / 55 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 78% | Draw 15% | Famalicao 7%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | Famalicao 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sporting CP 30% | Famalicao 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 78% | Draw 15% | Famalicao 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 41% | xG Sporting CP 2.45 / Famalicao 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.521 / def 0.655 | Famalicao attack 0.751 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Famalicao xG
41%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Famalicao kick off?
Sporting CP vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Sporting CP 1 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Sporting CP vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Famalicao part of?
Sporting CP vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 78% chance of winning, Famalicao a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sporting CP and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Famalicao?
Record (9 meetings): Sporting CP 8W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 0W.
What form are Sporting CP and Famalicao in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Famalicao (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.52x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.75x) against Sporting CP's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.78
7%
13.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
3 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
3.04
0.60
Famalicao xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.78
15%
Draw
13.97
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
9%
11.54
Win to Nil
43%
2.33
1%
161.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.60 for Famalicao, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 41W 11D 3L from 55 games, a 2.44 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 18L across 55 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Famalicao heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 22W 3D 2L from 27 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sporting CP are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.29 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Famalicao in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 41W 11D 3L in their last 55 games (2.44 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 21W 16D 18L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Famalicao away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.56 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Famalicao in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sporting CP have won the last 9 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sporting CP have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Sporting CP
1
Draws
0
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 9, Famalicao have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Sporting CP 1-0 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Famalicao?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 48%, Famalicao 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sporting CP) and 52% (Famalicao). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 56% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sporting CP's matches and 52% of Famalicao's.
Do Sporting CP and Famalicao tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Famalicao 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Famalicao 1-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.45 xG and Famalicao 0.60 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sporting CP fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.52 / defence 0.66 against Famalicao attack 0.75 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 78% | Draw 15% | Famalicao 7%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 67%, Famalicao 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Famalicao's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.