Sporting CP 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sporting CP vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sporting CP host Benfica at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sporting CP — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Estádio José Alvalade, Sporting CP have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 2.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sporting CP, 0 for Benfica and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Sporting CP winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sporting CP trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
Benfica trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 45% versus Benfica 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 45% | Benfica 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.65 xG and Benfica 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.211 / defence 0.813 | Benfica attack 1.356 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.196. Benfica bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Sporting CP's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Sporting CP games / 29 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 45% | Draw 25% | Benfica 30%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Benfica 3.33. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sporting CP offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sporting CP 20% | Benfica 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 45% | Draw 25% | Benfica 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Sporting CP 1.65 / Benfica 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.211 / def 0.813 | Benfica attack 1.356 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Benfica xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Benfica kick off?
Sporting CP vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Sporting CP 0 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Sporting CP vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Benfica part of?
Sporting CP vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 45% chance of winning, Benfica a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sporting CP and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Benfica?
Record (1 meetings): Sporting CP 1W | Draws 0 | Benfica 0W.
What form are Sporting CP and Benfica in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.21x the league average against Benfica's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Sporting CP's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
45%
2.24
25%
3.93
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
2.97
1.32
Benfica xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.32 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 23W 4D 2L from 29 games, a 2.52 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 20W 4D 5L across 29 games — 2.21 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sporting CP on 2.52 PPG, Benfica on 2.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 12W 1D 1L from 14 games — 2.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 10W 2D 2L across 14 trips, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sporting CP are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.52 scored and 1.00 conceded. Sporting CP's scoring rate against Benfica's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica in 69%.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Benfica in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 23W 4D 2L in their last 29 games (2.52 PPG), while Benfica have gone 20W 4D 5L in their last 29 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Benfica away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.64 PPG; Benfica away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Benfica in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sporting CP's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sporting CP
4
Draws
3
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 3, Benfica have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 21%, Benfica 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sporting CP) and 71% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 79% of their matches; Benfica in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 64% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sporting CP's recent games and 71% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sporting CP and Benfica tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Benfica in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sporting CP.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Sporting CP 0-2 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.65 xG and Benfica 1.32 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sporting CP fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.21 / defence 0.81 against Benfica attack 1.36 / defence 1.25, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 45% | Draw 25% | Benfica 30%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Benfica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 45%, Benfica 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Benfica's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sporting CP 2.52 PPG, Benfica 2.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benfica win broke the near-deadlock. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.