SC Braga 1-3 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sporting CP (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SC Braga face Sporting CP.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as SC Braga welcome Sporting CP to Estádio Municipal de Braga. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 October 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Braga have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Braga's home record at Estádio Municipal de Braga: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Braga are significantly better at Estádio Municipal de Braga than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Sporting CP have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sporting CP have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Sporting CP have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sporting CP's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of SC Braga's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Braga register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sporting CP in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SC Braga, 3 for Sporting CP and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Braga in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Sporting CP in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 55% versus Sporting CP 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Braga 65% | Sporting CP 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.14 xG and Sporting CP 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 0.977 / defence 0.786 | Sporting CP attack 1.274 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.330. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. SC Braga's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 SC Braga games / 41 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 32% | Draw 27% | Sporting CP 41%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Sporting CP 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sporting CP offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Braga 60% | Sporting CP 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 32% | Draw 27% | Sporting CP 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG SC Braga 1.14 / Sporting CP 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 0.977 / def 0.786 | Sporting CP attack 1.274 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sporting CP xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Sporting CP kick off?
SC Braga vs Sporting CP kicked off at 19:15 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Sporting CP?
SC Braga 1 - 3 Sporting CP.
Where is SC Braga vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Sporting CP part of?
SC Braga vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 32% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SC Braga and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Sporting CP?
Record (9 meetings): SC Braga 1W | Draws 5 | Sporting CP 3W.
What form are SC Braga and Sporting CP in?
SC Braga (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Sporting CP (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Braga's attack rating (0.98) and Sporting CP's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sporting CP's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
32%
3.14
27%
3.70
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.47
1.33
Sporting CP xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.33 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, SC Braga have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 19W 13D 8L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Braga, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sporting CP's form line: 28W 10D 2L from 40 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Sporting CP, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sporting CP are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SC Braga.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Braga have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (10W 6D 3L).
On the road, Sporting CP have gone 12W 7D 0L from 19 away games — 2.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Braga are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.60 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sporting CP in 60%.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Sporting CP in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Early Season
Sporting CP
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 19W 13D 8L in their last 40 games (1.75 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 28W 10D 2L in their last 40 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 1.89 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.26 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2023, when Sporting CP won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Braga's record when hosting Sporting CP specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Braga
5
Draws
4
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 1, Sporting CP have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when SC Braga 1-3 Sporting CP.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 47%, Sporting CP 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for SC Braga and 63% for Sporting CP. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Sporting CP?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of SC Braga's games and 74% of Sporting CP's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Braga vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SC Braga's matches and 63% of Sporting CP's.
Do SC Braga and Sporting CP tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SC Braga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat SC Braga 1-3 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.14 xG and Sporting CP 1.33 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sporting CP outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 0.98 / defence 0.79 against Sporting CP attack 1.27 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 32% | Draw 27% | Sporting CP 41%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 65%, Sporting CP 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sporting CP's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.75. Form held, and they took the win. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.