SC Braga 3-0 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Braga vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Portimonense travel to Estádio Municipal de Braga to take on SC Braga. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, SC Braga have gone 4W 4D 1L from 9 outings — a 1.78 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 0.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Braga have posted 1W 2D 1L at Estádio Municipal de Braga — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.25 lags behind their overall 1.78 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Municipal de Braga this season.
Portimonense — All Games: 4W 2D 3L from 9 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.56 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Portimonense have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 4 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.56 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Braga 1.78 PPG, Portimonense 1.56 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
SC Braga trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Portimonense trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 56% versus Portimonense 22%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SC Braga 44% | Portimonense 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 0.88 xG and Portimonense 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.070 / defence 1.204 | Portimonense attack 0.947 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.167. Data: 9 SC Braga games / 9 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 21% | Draw 36% | Portimonense 43%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 4.76 | Draw 2.78 | Portimonense 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Portimonense are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portimonense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: SC Braga 75% | Portimonense 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 21% | Draw 36% | Portimonense 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG SC Braga 0.88 / Portimonense 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.070 / def 1.204 | Portimonense attack 0.947 / def 0.868 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Portimonense xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Portimonense kick off?
SC Braga vs Portimonense kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Portimonense?
SC Braga 3 - 0 Portimonense.
Where is SC Braga vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Portimonense part of?
SC Braga vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 21% chance of winning, Portimonense a 43% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SC Braga and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Portimonense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Braga and Portimonense in?
SC Braga (all comps): 4W-4D-1L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 0.89 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Portimonense (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Braga's attack rating (1.07) and Portimonense's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Portimonense's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
21%
4.80
36%
2.79
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.21
1.33
Portimonense xG
4.80
21%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
6%
18.16
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.6 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.33 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, SC Braga have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 4W 4D 1L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portimonense's form line: 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Braga on 1.78 PPG, Portimonense on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Braga have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That actually lags their 1.78 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Portimonense have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.56 PPG overall record — Portimonense travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portimonense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Braga are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 0.89 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Portimonense in 22%.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Portimonense in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Portimonense in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 4W 4D 1L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Portimonense away?
Portimonense's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 1.25 PPG; Portimonense away: 2.50 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Portimonense in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SC Braga have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when SC Braga won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Braga's record when hosting Portimonense specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
SC Braga
0
Draws
0
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Portimonense?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 6, Portimonense have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Portimonense 3-5 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Portimonense?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Braga see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Portimonense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 75%, Portimonense 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (SC Braga) and 25% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Portimonense in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of SC Braga's recent matches and 25% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of SC Braga's recent games and 25% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant SC Braga run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Portimonense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Portimonense 3-0 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 0.88 xG and Portimonense 1.33 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Braga beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Portimonense landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against Portimonense attack 0.95 / defence 0.87, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 21% | Draw 36% | Portimonense 43%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a SC Braga win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 44%, Portimonense 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Portimonense's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Braga 1.78 PPG, Portimonense 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Braga win broke the near-deadlock. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Portimonense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.