SC Braga 2-0 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Braga at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs Moreirense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Braga and Moreirense meet at Estádio Municipal de Braga in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
SC Braga's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga at Estádio Municipal de Braga this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Moreirense have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Moreirense's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward SC Braga. A 1.00 PPG lead over Moreirense (1.90 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Braga lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with SC Braga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SC Braga half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Moreirense half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 47% versus Moreirense 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 53% | Moreirense 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.27 xG and Moreirense 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.069 / defence 0.956 | Moreirense attack 0.589 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.444. Data: 19 SC Braga games / 19 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 46% | Draw 31% | Moreirense 23%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Moreirense 4.35. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Braga if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: SC Braga 50% | Moreirense 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 46% | Draw 31% | Moreirense 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG SC Braga 1.27 / Moreirense 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.069 / def 0.956 | Moreirense attack 0.589 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Moreirense xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Moreirense kick off?
SC Braga vs Moreirense kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Moreirense?
SC Braga 2 - 0 Moreirense.
Where is SC Braga vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Moreirense part of?
SC Braga vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 46% chance of winning, Moreirense a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both SC Braga and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Moreirense?
Record (1 meetings): SC Braga 1W | Draws 0 | Moreirense 0W.
What form are SC Braga and Moreirense in?
SC Braga (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Moreirense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Braga's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Moreirense's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Moreirense's attack (0.59x) against SC Braga's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.25
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.09
0.81
Moreirense xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for SC Braga and 0.81 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Braga come into this having played 19 games, going 10W 5D 4L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Moreirense sit at 0.84 PPG from 19 outings (3W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Moreirense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Braga's home form reads 5W 3D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Moreirense have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Braga are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 0.95 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Moreirense in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 10W 5D 4L in their last 19 games (1.84 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 3W 7D 9L in their last 19 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Moreirense away?
SC Braga's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 1.80 PPG; Moreirense away: 0.70 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Moreirense in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Braga have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Moreirense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
8
SC Braga
1
Draws
0
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Moreirense?
From 9 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 8, Moreirense have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Moreirense 2-2 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Moreirense?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 50%, Moreirense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (SC Braga) and 40% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Moreirense in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SC Braga's recent matches and 50% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of SC Braga's recent games and 40% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Braga and Moreirense tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Braga cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Moreirense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Moreirense 2-0 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.27 xG and Moreirense 0.81 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Moreirense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Moreirense attack 0.59 / defence 1.09, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 46% | Draw 31% | Moreirense 23%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 53%, Moreirense 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Moreirense's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. SC Braga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.