Santa Clara 1-2 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sporting CP at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs Sporting CP encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Santa Clara welcome Sporting CP to Estádio de São Miguel. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara at Estádio de São Miguel this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sporting CP stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sporting CP have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Sporting CP's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Santa Clara's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Santa Clara register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sporting CP in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Santa Clara, 1 for Sporting CP and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 0–4 with Sporting CP winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Santa Clara trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sporting CP trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 55% versus Sporting CP 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 52% | Sporting CP 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.26 xG and Sporting CP 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.884 / defence 1.020 | Sporting CP attack 1.282 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.062. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Santa Clara games / 42 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 34% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 40%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Sporting CP 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sporting CP offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 60% | Sporting CP 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 34% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Santa Clara 1.26 / Sporting CP 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.884 / def 1.020 | Sporting CP attack 1.282 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sporting CP xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Sporting CP kick off?
Santa Clara vs Sporting CP kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Sporting CP?
Santa Clara 1 - 2 Sporting CP.
Where is Santa Clara vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Sporting CP part of?
Santa Clara vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 34% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Santa Clara and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Sporting CP?
Record (2 meetings): Santa Clara 1W | Draws 0 | Sporting CP 1W.
What form are Santa Clara and Sporting CP in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Sporting CP (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Santa Clara's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sporting CP's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sporting CP's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
34%
2.95
26%
3.84
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.64
1.39
Sporting CP xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
8%
11.82
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.39 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santa Clara come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 15D 17L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sporting CP sit at 2.33 PPG from 42 outings (31W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Santa Clara's home form reads 9W 8D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sporting CP have taken 2.19 points per game from 21 outings (14W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Santa Clara are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.12 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 10W 15D 17L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 31W 5D 6L in their last 42 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.67 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santa Clara and Sporting CP runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sporting CP have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Sporting CP won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Sporting CP specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Santa Clara
0
Draws
6
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Sporting CP?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 2, Sporting CP have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Sporting CP 4-2 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 57%, Sporting CP 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Santa Clara) and 67% (Sporting CP). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Sporting CP?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Santa Clara's games and 62% of Sporting CP's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santa Clara vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Santa Clara's matches and 67% of Sporting CP's.
Do Santa Clara and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Santa Clara 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Santa Clara 1-2 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.26 xG and Sporting CP 1.39 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Sporting CP attack 1.28 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 34% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 40%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 52%, Sporting CP 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sporting CP's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.