Santa Clara 3-2 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs Sporting CP encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Santa Clara welcome Sporting CP to Estádio de São Miguel. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 January 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara at Estádio de São Miguel this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sporting CP stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sporting CP have gone 6W 1D 0L from 7 away fixtures this term (2.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Sporting CP's 3.00 PPG return is 2.10 points per game ahead of Santa Clara's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Santa Clara trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sporting CP trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 56% versus Sporting CP 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 62% | Sporting CP 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 0.73 xG and Sporting CP 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.805 / defence 1.157 | Sporting CP attack 1.125 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.399. Data: 16 Santa Clara games / 16 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 14% | Draw 23% | Sporting CP 63%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 7.14 | Draw 4.35 | Sporting CP 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Santa Clara 38% | Sporting CP 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jan 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 14% | Draw 23% | Sporting CP 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 44% | xG Santa Clara 0.73 / Sporting CP 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.805 / def 1.157 | Sporting CP attack 1.125 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Sporting CP xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Sporting CP kick off?
Santa Clara vs Sporting CP kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 7 January 2022 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Sporting CP?
Santa Clara 3 - 2 Sporting CP.
Where is Santa Clara vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Sporting CP part of?
Santa Clara vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 14% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 63% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Santa Clara and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Sporting CP?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santa Clara and Sporting CP in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Sporting CP (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Santa Clara's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sporting CP's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sporting CP's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
14%
7.13
23%
4.30
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.55
1.82
Sporting CP xG
7.13
14%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
2%
43.95
30%
3.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.82 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Sporting CP?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santa Clara come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 4D 9L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sporting CP sit at 2.75 PPG from 16 outings (14W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.94 PPG clear of Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Santa Clara's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.81 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sporting CP have taken 2.71 points per game from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Santa Clara are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 1.88 scored and 0.44 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 3W 4D 9L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 14W 2D 0L in their last 16 (2.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.43 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.71 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santa Clara and Sporting CP runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sporting CP have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Sporting CP won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Sporting CP specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Santa Clara
0
Draws
6
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Sporting CP?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 2, Sporting CP have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Sporting CP 4-2 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Sporting CP see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 29%, Sporting CP 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Santa Clara) and 57% (Sporting CP).
On the defensive side: Sporting CP in 43%; Santa Clara have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 57% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Santa Clara's recent games and 57% of Sporting CP's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat Sporting CP 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Sporting CP 3-2 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.73 xG and Sporting CP 1.82 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Santa Clara beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Sporting CP attack 1.12 / defence 0.81, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 14% | Draw 23% | Sporting CP 63%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Santa Clara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 62%, Sporting CP 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sporting CP's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.75 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Santa Clara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm. Sporting CP (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.