Rio Ave 0-1 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rio Ave at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pacos Ferreira make the trip to Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube to face Rio Ave in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rio Ave have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Rio Ave, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rio Ave's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 2L across 7 games at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube this term (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pacos Ferreira (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Rio Ave's favour (1.50 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Rio Ave — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rio Ave 47% versus Pacos Ferreira 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rio Ave 40% | Pacos Ferreira 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rio Ave 1.39 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rio Ave attack 0.862 / defence 1.023 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.798 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 0.995. Data: 15 Rio Ave games / 49 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rio Ave 51% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 22%. Fair-value odds: Rio Ave 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Pacos Ferreira 4.55. Rio Ave hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rio Ave as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rio Ave if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rio Ave 43% | Pacos Ferreira 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rio Ave 51% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Rio Ave 1.39 / Pacos Ferreira 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Rio Ave attack 0.862 / def 1.023 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.798 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.346 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Rio Ave (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Rio Ave xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Pacos Ferreira xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube.
What was the final score in Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira?
Rio Ave 0 - 1 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube.
What competition is Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Rio Ave a 51% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rio Ave the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rio Ave and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rio Ave and Pacos Ferreira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rio Ave and Pacos Ferreira in?
Rio Ave (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rio Ave's attack rating (0.86) and Pacos Ferreira's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.80x) against Rio Ave's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rio Ave Win
51%
1.98
28%
3.64
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Rio Ave xG
Total xG
2.20
0.81
Pacos Ferreira xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
5%
18.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Rio Ave and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Rio Ave and 0.81 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rio Ave come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 5D 5L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Rio Ave is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacos Ferreira sit at 0.20 PPG from 15 outings (0W 3D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rio Ave carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Rio Ave's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Rio Ave are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pacos Ferreira have taken 0.14 points per game from 7 outings (0W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rio Ave come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rio Ave are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.53 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rio Ave
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rio Ave and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Rio Ave have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 0W 3D 12L in their last 15 (0.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rio Ave at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Rio Ave's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rio Ave at home: 1.86 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Rio Ave or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rio Ave have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Rio Ave
0
Draws
2
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rio Ave and Pacos Ferreira?
From 2 meetings on record, Rio Ave have won 0, Pacos Ferreira have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rio Ave and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 3-1 Rio Ave.
Who has won more matches between Rio Ave and Pacos Ferreira?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rio Ave are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rio Ave 43%, Pacos Ferreira 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Rio Ave) and 57% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Rio Ave keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Pacos Ferreira in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rio Ave home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rio Ave play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Rio Ave's recent matches and 43% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Rio Ave's recent games and 57% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rio Ave and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Rio Ave have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacos Ferreira defy the odds to beat Rio Ave 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Rio Ave 0-1 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.39 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.81 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rio Ave fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 51% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 22%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Pacos Ferreira win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 40%, Pacos Ferreira 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rio Ave's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rio Ave arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.20. Form was overturned, with Pacos Ferreira winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rio Ave (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.