Portimonense 2-2 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Casa Pia at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portimonense vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Portimão plays host to Portimonense versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Portimonense have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Portimonense at Estádio Municipal de Portimão this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Casa Pia (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Casa Pia away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Portimonense, 1.20 for Casa Pia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Portimonense, 2 for Casa Pia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Casa Pia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Portimonense — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 44% versus Casa Pia 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 45% | Casa Pia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.33 xG and Casa Pia 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.813 / defence 1.272 | Casa Pia attack 1.157 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.281. Data: 62 Portimonense games / 62 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 27% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 50%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Casa Pia 2.00. Casa Pia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Casa Pia are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Portimonense 60% | Casa Pia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 27% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Portimonense 1.33 / Casa Pia 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.813 / def 1.272 | Casa Pia attack 1.157 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Casa Pia xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Casa Pia kick off?
Portimonense vs Casa Pia kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Casa Pia?
Portimonense 2 - 2 Casa Pia.
Where is Portimonense vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Casa Pia part of?
Portimonense vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 27% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Portimonense and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Casa Pia?
Record (3 meetings): Portimonense 0W | Draws 1 | Casa Pia 2W.
What form are Portimonense and Casa Pia in?
Portimonense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Portimonense's attack at 0.81x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (1.16x) against Portimonense's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
27%
3.72
23%
4.34
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Portimonense xG
Total xG
3.22
1.89
Casa Pia xG
3.72
27%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
4%
24.50
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.89 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Portimonense come into this having played 62 games, going 17W 9D 36L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Casa Pia sit at 1.16 PPG from 62 outings (19W 15D 28L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Portimonense against 1.16 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Portimonense's home form reads 9W 7D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Casa Pia have taken 1.23 points per game from 31 outings (11W 5D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Portimonense are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 0.94 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Current Season
Casa Pia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 17W 9D 36L in their last 62 games (0.97 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 19W 15D 28L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Casa Pia away?
Casa Pia's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.10 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Portimonense
2
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Casa Pia?
From 4 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 0, Casa Pia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Portimonense 2-2 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Casa Pia?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 52%, Casa Pia 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Portimonense) and 48% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Portimonense have failed to score in 29% of games; Casa Pia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Portimonense's recent matches and 42% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Portimonense's recent games and 48% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portimonense and Casa Pia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 29, as Portimonense and Casa Pia drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.33 xG and Casa Pia 1.89 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.81 / defence 1.27 against Casa Pia attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 27% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 50%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 45%, Casa Pia 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Casa Pia's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portimonense 0.97 PPG, Casa Pia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.