Moreirense 3-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Moreirense welcome Maritimo to Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 September 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Moreirense — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Moreirense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Moreirense's home record at Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Maritimo stand at 2W 1D 2L from 5 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Moreirense) versus 1.40 (Maritimo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Moreirense, 1 for Maritimo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Maritimo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Moreirense in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Maritimo in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 40% versus Maritimo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Moreirense 80% | Maritimo 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.34 xG and Maritimo 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.900 / defence 1.192 | Maritimo attack 0.957 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.297. Data: 39 Moreirense games / 5 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 34% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 41%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Maritimo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Maritimo at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Maritimo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Moreirense 40% | Maritimo 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Monday 14 Sep 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 34% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Moreirense 1.34 / Maritimo 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.900 / def 1.192 | Maritimo attack 0.957 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Maritimo xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Maritimo kick off?
Moreirense vs Maritimo kicked off at 19:15 on Monday 14 September 2026 at Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Moreirense 3 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Moreirense vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Maritimo part of?
Moreirense vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 34% chance of winning, Maritimo a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Moreirense and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Maritimo?
Record (2 meetings): Moreirense 0W | Draws 1 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Moreirense and Maritimo in?
Moreirense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Maritimo (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 0.90x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
34%
2.93
25%
3.98
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.82
1.48
Maritimo xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.85
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.48 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Moreirense's recent record stands at 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Moreirense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Maritimo by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Moreirense heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Early Season
Maritimo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Moreirense's record when hosting Maritimo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Moreirense
1
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Maritimo?
From 3 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 1, Maritimo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Moreirense 3-1 Maritimo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 40%, Maritimo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Moreirense and 80% for Maritimo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Moreirense have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Moreirense's recent matches and 60% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Moreirense vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Moreirense's matches and 80% of Maritimo's.
Do Moreirense and Maritimo tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Moreirense cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Maritimo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Maritimo 3-1 at Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.34 xG and Maritimo 1.48 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Moreirense beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against Maritimo attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 34% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 41%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Moreirense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 80%, Maritimo 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Maritimo's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Maritimo arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Moreirense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Moreirense scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. Maritimo shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.