Moreirense 2-2 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Moreirense welcome GIL Vicente to Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 November 2021 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 1W 2D 2L at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Moreirense at 0.80 PPG versus GIL Vicente's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Moreirense register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, GIL Vicente in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Moreirense trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
GIL Vicente trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Moreirense 73% and GIL Vicente 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 64% | GIL Vicente 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.30 xG and GIL Vicente 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 1.043 / defence 1.274 | GIL Vicente attack 0.881 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.220. Data: 11 Moreirense games / 11 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 32% | Draw 33% | GIL Vicente 35%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | GIL Vicente 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Moreirense 100% | GIL Vicente 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 32% | Draw 33% | GIL Vicente 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Moreirense 1.30 / GIL Vicente 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 1.043 / def 1.274 | GIL Vicente attack 0.881 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.37
GIL Vicente xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Moreirense 2 - 2 GIL Vicente.
Where is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente part of?
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 32% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Moreirense and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Moreirense and GIL Vicente in?
Moreirense (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Moreirense's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
32%
3.16
33%
2.99
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.67
1.37
GIL Vicente xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
8%
12.44
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Moreirense and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.37 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Moreirense's recent record stands at 1W 5D 5L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 4L across 11 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Moreirense heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.18 PPG overall record — GIL Vicente travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Moreirense have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 1W 5D 5L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.00 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Moreirense's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Moreirense
2
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
From 8 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 3, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Moreirense 1-2 GIL Vicente.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Moreirense at 100%, GIL Vicente at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Moreirense and 40% for GIL Vicente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Moreirense's games and 60% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Moreirense's matches and 40% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Moreirense and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Moreirense and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense and GIL Vicente finished level at 2-2 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.30 xG and GIL Vicente 1.37 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.04 / defence 1.27 against GIL Vicente attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 32% | Draw 33% | GIL Vicente 35%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 64%, GIL Vicente 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.