Moreirense 1-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Moreirense at 37%, yet in-form Chaves provide a compelling counter-argument — this Moreirense vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chaves make the trip to Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas to face Moreirense in Primeira Liga, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Moreirense have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 4W 0D 6L at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chaves's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Chaves have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Chaves are the stronger side — 2.10 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Moreirense have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Chaves in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Moreirense lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Chaves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.21 xG and Chaves 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.937 / defence 1.161 | Chaves attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.146. Data: 34 Moreirense games / 0 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 37% | Draw 29% | Chaves 34%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Chaves 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chaves (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Moreirense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 37% | Draw 29% | Chaves 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Moreirense 1.21 / Chaves 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.937 / def 1.161 | Chaves attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Chaves xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Chaves kick off?
Moreirense vs Chaves kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Chaves?
Moreirense 1 - 0 Chaves.
Where is Moreirense vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Chaves part of?
Moreirense vs Chaves is a Relegation Round fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 37% chance of winning, Chaves a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Moreirense and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Chaves?
Record (1 meetings): Moreirense 0W | Draws 0 | Chaves 1W.
What form are Moreirense and Chaves in?
Moreirense (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Chaves (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Moreirense's attack rating (0.94) and Chaves's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chaves's attack (0.85x) against Moreirense's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.40
34%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.34
1.13
Chaves xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.99
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.13 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Moreirense come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Moreirense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chaves sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chaves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Moreirense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Moreirense are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Moreirense have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Chaves in 0%.
Defensively: Chaves in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Early Season
Chaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Chaves in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Chaves have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Moreirense or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Chaves in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Moreirense have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Moreirense have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Moreirense
0
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 3, Chaves have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Moreirense 1-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Chaves?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Moreirense's recent matches and 0% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Moreirense vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Moreirense's recent games and 0% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and Chaves tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chaves in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Moreirense edge out Chaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Chaves 1-0 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Relegation Round, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.21 xG and Chaves 1.13 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chaves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Chaves attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 37% | Draw 29% | Chaves 34%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 0%, Chaves 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Chaves arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Moreirense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Moreirense scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chaves managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.