Moreirense 0-4 Benfica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Benfica (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Moreirense face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas plays host to Moreirense versus Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 14 December 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Moreirense have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Moreirense at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Moreirense are significantly better at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas than their overall form suggests.
Benfica's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Benfica are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Benfica have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Moreirense's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 2–3 with Benfica winning.
It is worth noting that Benfica have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Moreirense half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 62% versus Benfica 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 57% | Benfica 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 1.226 / defence 1.049 | Benfica attack 1.241 / defence 0.684. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.271. Benfica's defence strength of 0.684 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Moreirense games / 47 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 26% | Draw 25% | Benfica 49%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Benfica 2.04. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benfica if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Moreirense 80% | Benfica 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 26% | Draw 25% | Benfica 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Moreirense 1.14 / Benfica 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 1.226 / def 1.049 | Benfica attack 1.241 / def 0.684 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Benfica (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Benfica xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Benfica kick off?
Moreirense vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
Moreirense 0 - 4 Benfica.
Where is Moreirense vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Benfica part of?
Moreirense vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 26% chance of winning, Benfica a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Moreirense and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Benfica?
Record (6 meetings): Moreirense 0W | Draws 3 | Benfica 3W.
What form are Moreirense and Benfica in?
Moreirense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Benfica (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 1.23x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.24x) against Moreirense's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
26%
3.88
25%
3.95
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.79
1.66
Benfica xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
5%
20.31
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.66 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Moreirense come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 12D 19L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.32 PPG from 47 outings (33W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Moreirense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Moreirense's home form reads 10W 9D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Moreirense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.26 points per game from 23 outings (16W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Moreirense are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.34 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Moreirense have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benfica in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Benfica in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 16W 12D 19L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Benfica have gone 33W 10D 4L in their last 47 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.70 PPG; Benfica away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Moreirense or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Benfica in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Benfica go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Moreirense have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Moreirense
3
Draws
5
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Benfica?
From 8 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 0, Benfica have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Benfica 4-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 70%, Benfica 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Moreirense) and 56% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Moreirense's games and 48% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Moreirense vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Moreirense's matches and 56% of Benfica's.
Do Moreirense and Benfica tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Benfica in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Moreirense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Moreirense 0-4 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.66 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Moreirense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.23 / defence 1.05 against Benfica attack 1.24 / defence 0.68, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 26% | Draw 25% | Benfica 49%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 57%, Benfica 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Benfica's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.