Moreirense 4-1 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Moreirense at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs Belenenses fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas plays host to Moreirense versus Belenenses in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Monday 7 February 2022 at 21:15 UTC.
Current Form
Moreirense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Moreirense at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas this season: 2W 3D 4L from 9 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Belenenses have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Belenenses away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Moreirense, 0 for Belenenses and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Moreirense — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Belenenses — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 55% versus Belenenses 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Moreirense 45% | Belenenses 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.05 xG and Belenenses 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.821 / defence 1.186 | Belenenses attack 0.485 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.406. Belenenses bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Moreirense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Moreirense games / 20 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 38% | Draw 36% | Belenenses 25%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Belenenses 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Moreirense are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Moreirense if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Moreirense 67% | Belenenses 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Monday 7 Feb 2022, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 38% | Draw 36% | Belenenses 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Moreirense 1.05 / Belenenses 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.821 / def 1.186 | Belenenses attack 0.485 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Belenenses xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Belenenses kick off?
Moreirense vs Belenenses kicked off at 21:15 on Monday 7 February 2022 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Belenenses?
Moreirense 4 - 1 Belenenses.
Where is Moreirense vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Belenenses part of?
Moreirense vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 38% chance of winning, Belenenses a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Moreirense and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Belenenses?
Record (1 meetings): Moreirense 0W | Draws 1 | Belenenses 0W.
What form are Moreirense and Belenenses in?
Moreirense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Belenenses (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 0.82x the league average against Belenenses's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Belenenses's attack (0.48x) against Moreirense's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
38%
2.61
36%
2.76
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Moreirense xG
Total xG
1.86
0.81
Belenenses xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Moreirense and 0.81 for Belenenses, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Belenenses?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Moreirense's recent record stands at 3W 7D 10L from 20 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Belenenses, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 12L across 20 games — 0.60 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Moreirense against 0.60 for Belenenses. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 2W 3D 4L from 9 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Belenenses's away record stands at 0W 4D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Moreirense are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.60 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Belenenses
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 3W 7D 10L in their last 20 games (0.80 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 2W 6D 12L in their last 20 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Belenenses away?
Moreirense's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.00 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Moreirense
1
Draws
0
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 1, Belenenses have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2022, when Moreirense 4-1 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Belenenses?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 67%, Belenenses 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 56% for Moreirense and 11% for Belenenses.
On the defensive side: Belenenses in 78%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Moreirense's recent matches and 22% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Moreirense vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Moreirense's recent games and 11% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and Belenenses tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Moreirense run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Belenenses.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Belenenses 4-1 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.05 xG and Belenenses 0.81 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Moreirense beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Belenenses attack 0.48 / defence 1.21, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 38% | Draw 36% | Belenenses 25%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 45%, Belenenses 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Belenenses's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Moreirense 0.80 PPG, Belenenses 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Moreirense win broke the near-deadlock. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Belenenses (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.