Vitória SC 2-1 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitória SC at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitória SC vs Estrela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estrela make the trip to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques to face Vitória SC in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Vitória SC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Vitória SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Vitória SC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Estrela have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Estrela have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Vitória SC against 1.20 for Estrela. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Vitória SC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Estrela managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Vitória SC winning.
The historical record gives Vitória SC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Vitória SC half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitória SC 40% versus Estrela 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitória SC 46% | Estrela 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 1.78 xG and Estrela 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 0.925 / defence 0.927 | Estrela attack 0.993 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.252. Estrela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Vitória SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Vitória SC games / 55 Estrela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitória SC 52% | Draw 23% | Estrela 25%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Estrela 4.00. Vitória SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitória SC at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitória SC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vitória SC 50% | Estrela 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitória SC vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitória SC 52% | Draw 23% | Estrela 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Vitória SC 1.78 / Estrela 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Vitória SC attack 0.925 / def 0.927 | Estrela attack 0.993 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Vitória SC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Vitória SC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Estrela xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitória SC vs Estrela kick off?
Vitória SC vs Estrela kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Vitória SC vs Estrela?
Vitória SC 2 - 1 Estrela.
Where is Vitória SC vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Vitória SC vs Estrela part of?
Vitória SC vs Estrela is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vitória SC vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Vitória SC a 52% chance of winning, Estrela a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vitória SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vitória SC and Estrela will score (BTTS).
Will Vitória SC vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Estrela?
Record (5 meetings): Vitória SC 4W | Draws 1 | Estrela 0W.
What form are Vitória SC and Estrela in?
Vitória SC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Estrela (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vitória SC's attack at 0.93x the league average against Estrela's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estrela's attack (0.99x) against Vitória SC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitória SC Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.29
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Vitória SC xG
Total xG
2.93
1.15
Estrela xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
4%
24.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitória SC vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Vitória SC and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Vitória SC and 1.15 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitória SC vs Estrela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vitória SC come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 16D 17L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Vitória SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estrela sit at 0.95 PPG from 55 outings (12W 16D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitória SC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Estrela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vitória SC's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Estrela have taken 0.74 points per game from 27 outings (4W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitória SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitória SC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 0.89 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitória SC
Blended
Estrela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitória SC and Estrela in coming into this match?
Vitória SC have gone 22W 16D 17L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while Estrela have gone 12W 16D 27L in their last 55 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitória SC at home or Estrela away?
Vitória SC's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitória SC at home: 1.74 PPG; Estrela away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Vitória SC or Estrela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Estrela in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Vitória SC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vitória SC won 3-0 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitória SC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estrela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Vitória SC
1
Draws
0
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Estrela?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitória SC have won 5, Estrela have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitória SC and Estrela last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Vitória SC 2-1 Estrela.
Who has won more matches between Vitória SC and Estrela?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitória SC 44%, Estrela 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Vitória SC) and 30% (Estrela).
On the defensive side: Vitória SC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Estrela in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitória SC home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitória SC play Estrela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Vitória SC's recent matches and 33% of Estrela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitória SC vs Estrela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Vitória SC's recent games and 30% of Estrela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitória SC and Estrela tend to score early?
Vitória SC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Estrela in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitória SC edge out Estrela 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC beat Estrela 2-1 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitória SC 1.78 xG and Estrela 1.15 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitória SC attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Estrela attack 0.99 / defence 1.24, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitória SC 52% | Draw 23% | Estrela 25%, with Vitória SC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitória SC 46%, Estrela 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitória SC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Estrela's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.