GIL Vicente 0-0 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SC Braga travel to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to take on GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 21:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, GIL Vicente have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
SC Braga — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SC Braga's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Braga are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, GIL Vicente have won 1, SC Braga 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2024, ended GIL Vicente 1–2 SC Braga — a SC Braga win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
GIL Vicente trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
SC Braga trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 49% versus SC Braga 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 51% | SC Braga 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: GIL Vicente surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while SC Braga have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.50 xG and SC Braga 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.203 / defence 1.124 | SC Braga attack 1.157 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.168. Data: built from GIL Vicente's last 37 games and SC Braga's last 37.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 38% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 38%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.66 | Draw 4.13 | SC Braga 2.62. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — GIL Vicente 38% and SC Braga 38%, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (GIL Vicente's last 10 home games and SC Braga's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: GIL Vicente 50% (last 10 home games) | SC Braga 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 38% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG GIL Vicente 1.50 / SC Braga 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.203 / def 1.124 | SC Braga attack 1.157 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — GIL Vicente and SC Braga level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.52
SC Braga xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIL Vicente vs SC Braga FAQs
What time does GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kick off?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
GIL Vicente 0 - 0 SC Braga.
Where is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga part of?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 38% chance of winning, SC Braga a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both GIL Vicente and SC Braga will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will GIL Vicente vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIL Vicente's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from GIL Vicente's last 37 games and SC Braga's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
38%
2.66
24%
4.13
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
3.02
1.52
SC Braga xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIL Vicente vs SC Braga Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.52 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIL Vicente come into this having played 37 games, going 10W 10D 17L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 2.03 PPG from 37 outings (23W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIL Vicente's home form reads 7W 7D 4L across their last 18 home games, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 2.11 points per game from their last 18 away games (12W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.05 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Braga in 68%.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Early Season
SC Braga
Early Season
GIL Vicente (Home) vs SC Braga (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIL Vicente
Early Season
SC Braga
Early Season
❓ GIL Vicente vs SC Braga Form FAQs
What form are GIL Vicente and SC Braga in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 23W 6D 8L in their last 37 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.56 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
GIL Vicente have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
4
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ GIL Vicente vs SC Braga H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, GIL Vicente have won 4, SC Braga have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and SC Braga last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: SC Braga 1-2 GIL Vicente.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 56%, SC Braga 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (GIL Vicente) and 72% (SC Braga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIL Vicente vs SC Braga Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIL Vicente and SC Braga matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of GIL Vicente's games and 61% of SC Braga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are GIL Vicente and SC Braga matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of GIL Vicente's matches and 72% of SC Braga's.
Do GIL Vicente and SC Braga matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 78% of SC Braga's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at GIL Vicente's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 4, as GIL Vicente and SC Braga drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.50 xG and SC Braga 1.52 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SC Braga landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against SC Braga attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 38% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 38%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 51%, SC Braga 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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