GIL Vicente 2-2 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to take on GIL Vicente. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, GIL Vicente have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this season.
Santa Clara — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Santa Clara have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.56 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: GIL Vicente 2.10 PPG, Santa Clara 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for GIL Vicente, 1 for Santa Clara and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Santa Clara winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 50% versus Santa Clara 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 55% | Santa Clara 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.70 xG and Santa Clara 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.071 / defence 1.031 | Santa Clara attack 0.796 / defence 1.497. League average goals — home 1.059 / away 1.411. Santa Clara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.497 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 GIL Vicente games / 20 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 48% | Draw 28% | Santa Clara 24%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Santa Clara 4.17. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 40% | Santa Clara 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 48% | Draw 28% | Santa Clara 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG GIL Vicente 1.70 / Santa Clara 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.071 / def 1.031 | Santa Clara attack 0.796 / def 1.497 | league avg home 1.059 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Santa Clara xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
GIL Vicente 2 - 2 Santa Clara.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara part of?
GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 48% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both GIL Vicente and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara?
Record (1 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 0 | Santa Clara 1W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Santa Clara in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Santa Clara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.07x the league average against Santa Clara's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.62
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.86
1.16
Santa Clara xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
4%
22.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.16 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIL Vicente come into this having played 20 games, going 9W 6D 5L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIL Vicente's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.65 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 0.56 points per game from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.15 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santa Clara in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 9W 6D 5L in their last 20 games (1.65 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 6W 5D 9L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Santa Clara away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.22 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.56 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
GIL Vicente
1
Draws
5
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 2, Santa Clara have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Santa Clara 1-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 44%, Santa Clara 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for GIL Vicente and 67% for Santa Clara. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Santa Clara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of GIL Vicente's games and 67% of Santa Clara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of GIL Vicente's matches and 67% of Santa Clara's.
Do GIL Vicente and Santa Clara tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 21, as GIL Vicente and Santa Clara drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.70 xG and Santa Clara 1.16 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Santa Clara outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Santa Clara attack 0.80 / defence 1.50, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 48% | Draw 28% | Santa Clara 24%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 55%, Santa Clara 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Santa Clara's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.