GIL Vicente 1-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 45%, yet in-form Arouca provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIL Vicente vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos plays host to GIL Vicente versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 5 February 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's home record at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Arouca (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arouca have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Arouca arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: GIL Vicente 0W, Arouca 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Arouca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Arouca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 54% versus Arouca 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 54% | Arouca 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.35 xG and Arouca 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.850 / defence 1.012 | Arouca attack 0.958 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.012. Data: 52 GIL Vicente games / 52 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 45% | Draw 28% | Arouca 27%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Arouca 3.70. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Arouca (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 30% | Arouca 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 45% | Draw 28% | Arouca 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG GIL Vicente 1.35 / Arouca 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.850 / def 1.012 | Arouca attack 0.958 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Arouca xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Arouca kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
GIL Vicente 1 - 1 Arouca.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Arouca part of?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 45% chance of winning, Arouca a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both GIL Vicente and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
Record (3 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 1 | Arouca 2W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Arouca in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Arouca (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (0.85) and Arouca's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.96x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.63
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.33
0.98
Arouca xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
7%
14.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.98 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 18W 15D 19L from 52 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 23L across 52 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.10 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 8W 8D 9L from 25 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 4W 10D 11L across 25 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.00 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Arouca in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 18W 15D 19L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Arouca have gone 14W 15D 23L in their last 52 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Arouca away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.28 PPG; Arouca away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GIL Vicente
6
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 0, Arouca have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 44%, Arouca 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (GIL Vicente) and 48% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 32% of games; Arouca in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 60% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 48% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Arouca tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Arouca in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and Arouca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 19, as GIL Vicente and Arouca drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.35 xG and Arouca 0.98 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Arouca attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 45% | Draw 28% | Arouca 27%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 54%, Arouca 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.33 PPG, Arouca 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.