FC Porto 4-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Porto (79%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FC Porto face Vizela.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Dragão plays host to FC Porto versus Vizela in Primeira Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Porto have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
FC Porto at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vizela's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vizela's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in FC Porto's favour (2.10 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours FC Porto, who have won 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Vizela — Vizela have 0 wins, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended FC Porto 2–0 Vizela — a FC Porto win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both FC Porto and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
FC Porto half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Porto 46% versus Vizela 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Porto 51% | Vizela 46%). Note also that Vizela surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while FC Porto recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Porto 2.42 xG and Vizela 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Porto attack 1.351 / defence 0.568 | Vizela attack 0.758 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.212. FC Porto carry an above-average attack rating of 1.351 — their 2.42 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Vizela's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Porto's projected output up. Vizela's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.52. FC Porto have a tight defence (rating 0.568), which is pulling Vizela's projected output down. Data: built from FC Porto's last 59 games and Vizela's last 59.
Result probabilities: FC Porto 79% | Draw 15% | Vizela 6%. Fair-value odds: FC Porto 1.27 | Draw 6.51 | Vizela 17.64. The model has a clear lean to FC Porto (79%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Porto as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Porto 20% (last 10 home games) | Vizela 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Porto vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Estádio Do Dragão • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Porto 79% | Draw 15% | Vizela 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG FC Porto 2.42 / Vizela 0.52 • Poisson strength factors: FC Porto attack 1.351 / def 0.568 | Vizela attack 0.758 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
FC Porto xG
Expected Goals
0.52
Vizela xG
38%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Porto vs Vizela FAQs
What time does FC Porto vs Vizela kick off?
FC Porto vs Vizela kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Estádio Do Dragão.
What was the final score in FC Porto vs Vizela?
FC Porto 4 - 1 Vizela.
Where is FC Porto vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Dragão.
What competition is FC Porto vs Vizela part of?
FC Porto vs Vizela is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win FC Porto vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives FC Porto a 79% chance of winning, Vizela a 6% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both FC Porto and Vizela will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will FC Porto vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Porto's attack rating (1.35) and Vizela's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.76x) against FC Porto's defence (0.57x) — and the away total comes out at 0.52.
These ratings are built from FC Porto's last 59 games and Vizela's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
79%
1.27
15%
6.51
6%
17.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
3 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
FC Porto xG
Total xG
2.94
0.52
Vizela xG
1.27
79%
Home win
6.51
15%
Draw
17.64
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
9%
11.25
Win to Nil
47%
2.13
1%
198.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.4 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Porto vs Vizela Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Porto vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are FC Porto and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.52 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Porto vs Vizela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Porto come into this having played 59 games, going 44W 8D 7L for 2.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Vizela sit at 1.03 PPG from 59 outings (15W 16D 28L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
FC Porto carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.34 PPG clear of Vizela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Porto's home form reads 24W 2D 3L across their last 29 home games, a 2.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Vizela have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Porto are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.00 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Porto
Blended
Vizela
Blended
FC Porto (Home) vs Vizela (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Porto
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ FC Porto vs Vizela Form FAQs
What form are FC Porto and Vizela in coming into this match?
FC Porto have gone 44W 8D 7L in their last 59 games (2.37 PPG), while Vizela have gone 15W 16D 28L in their last 59 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Porto at home or Vizela away?
FC Porto's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Porto at home: 2.55 PPG; Vizela away: 1.10 PPG.
Have FC Porto or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Vizela in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Porto have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Porto won Vizela 0-4 FC Porto on 19 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Porto have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
FC Porto
0
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Porto vs Vizela H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Vizela?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Porto have won 6, Vizela have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Porto and Vizela last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: FC Porto 4-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between FC Porto and Vizela?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 66% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Porto 41%, Vizela 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (FC Porto) and 38% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Vizela in 34%; Vizela in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Porto home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Porto vs Vizela Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Porto and Vizela matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of FC Porto's recent matches and 41% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Porto and Vizela matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of FC Porto's recent games and 38% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Porto and Vizela matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of FC Porto's recent matches and 52% of Vizela's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Porto run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Vizela 4-1 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 2.42 xG and Vizela 0.52 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Porto beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.35 / defence 0.57 against Vizela attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Porto 79% | Draw 15% | Vizela 6%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 51%, Vizela 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Porto's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Vizela's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.34 average — above their attacking norm. Vizela (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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