Farense 0-0 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Farense host Vizela at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Farense — All Games: 2W 0D 5L from 7 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.86 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.57 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Farense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio de São Lúis, Farense have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.86 — Farense are significantly better at Estádio de São Lúis than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vizela stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vizela's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Farense 0.86 PPG, Vizela 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Farense in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Vizela in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 43% versus Vizela 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Farense 71% | Vizela 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 2.11 xG and Vizela 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 1.228 / defence 1.187 | Vizela attack 0.984 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.298. Data: 7 Farense games / 41 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 51% | Draw 21% | Vizela 28%. Fair-value odds: Farense 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Vizela 3.57. Farense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Farense at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. This conflicts with form data: Farense 50% | Vizela 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 51% | Draw 21% | Vizela 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Farense 2.11 / Vizela 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 1.228 / def 1.187 | Vizela attack 0.984 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Farense (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Vizela xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Vizela kick off?
Farense vs Vizela kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Vizela?
Farense 0 - 0 Vizela.
Where is Farense vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Vizela part of?
Farense vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 51% chance of winning, Vizela a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Farense and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Vizela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Farense and Vizela in?
Farense (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Vizela (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Farense's attack rating (1.23) and Vizela's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
51%
1.95
21%
4.77
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Farense xG
Total xG
3.63
1.52
Vizela xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
3%
29.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Farense and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Farense and 1.52 for Vizela, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Farense have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 2W 0D 5L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Farense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vizela's form line: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 0.86 PPG, Vizela on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Farense have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Farense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vizela have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.43 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Early Season
Vizela
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Vizela in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Vizela have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Vizela away?
Farense's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 2.00 PPG; Vizela away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Farense
1
Draws
1
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Vizela?
From 2 meetings on record, Farense have won 0, Vizela have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Vizela 2-1 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Vizela?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Farense at 67%, Vizela at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Farense and 67% for Vizela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vizela in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Farense's games and 67% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Farense vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Farense's matches and 67% of Vizela's.
Do Farense and Vizela tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vizela in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Farense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 8, as Farense and Vizela drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 2.11 xG and Vizela 1.52 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Farense fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Vizela landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 1.23 / defence 1.19 against Vizela attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 51% | Draw 21% | Vizela 28%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 71%, Vizela 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vizela's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 0.86 PPG, Vizela 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.