Farense 0-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Farense welcome Arouca to Estádio de São Lúis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Farense stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Farense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Farense have posted 2W 2D 6L at Estádio de São Lúis — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arouca — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arouca's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Farense 0.60 PPG, Arouca 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Farense, 1 for Arouca and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Arouca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Farense trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Arouca trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 56% versus Arouca 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 56% | Arouca 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.29 xG and Arouca 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.871 / defence 1.379 | Arouca attack 0.950 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.182. Data: 39 Farense games / 39 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 32% | Draw 25% | Arouca 43%. Fair-value odds: Farense 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Arouca 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arouca as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arouca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Farense 70% | Arouca 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 32% | Draw 25% | Arouca 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Farense 1.29 / Arouca 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.871 / def 1.379 | Arouca attack 0.950 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Arouca (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Arouca xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Arouca kick off?
Farense vs Arouca kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Arouca?
Farense 0 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Farense vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Arouca part of?
Farense vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 32% chance of winning, Arouca a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Farense and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Arouca?
Record (2 meetings): Farense 1W | Draws 0 | Arouca 1W.
What form are Farense and Arouca in?
Farense (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Arouca (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Farense's attack rating (0.87) and Arouca's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Arouca's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
32%
3.14
25%
4.03
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Farense xG
Total xG
2.84
1.55
Arouca xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Farense and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Farense and 1.55 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Farense's recent record stands at 10W 7D 22L from 39 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Farense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 18L across 39 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 0.95 PPG, Arouca on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Farense have managed 6W 4D 9L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Farense are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.44 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Early Season
Arouca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Arouca in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 10W 7D 22L in their last 39 games (0.95 PPG), while Arouca have gone 14W 7D 18L in their last 39 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Arouca away?
Farense's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.16 PPG; Arouca away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Farense and Arouca runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Farense's record when hosting Arouca specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Farense
1
Draws
2
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Arouca?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 1, Arouca have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Arouca 2-2 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 53%, Arouca 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Farense and 63% for Arouca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Farense have failed to score in 26% of games; Arouca in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Arouca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Farense's games and 58% of Arouca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Farense vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Farense's matches and 63% of Arouca's.
Do Farense and Arouca tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Arouca in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Arouca edge out Farense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Farense 0-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.29 xG and Arouca 1.55 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Farense fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.87 / defence 1.38 against Arouca attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 32% | Draw 25% | Arouca 43%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 56%, Arouca 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arouca's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 0.95 PPG, Arouca 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.