Famalicao 0-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Famalicao welcome Benfica to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Famalicao — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Benfica's 2.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Famalicao's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Famalicao, 1 for Benfica and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Benfica in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 51% versus Benfica 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 54% | Benfica 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.87 xG and Benfica 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.961 / defence 1.023 | Benfica attack 1.316 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.140. Benfica's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Famalicao games / 39 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 21% | Draw 26% | Benfica 53%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 1.89. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 50% | Benfica 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 21% | Draw 26% | Benfica 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Famalicao 0.87 / Benfica 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.961 / def 1.023 | Benfica attack 1.316 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Benfica (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Benfica xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Benfica kick off?
Famalicao vs Benfica kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Benfica?
Famalicao 0 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Famalicao vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Benfica part of?
Famalicao vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 21% chance of winning, Benfica a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Famalicao and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Benfica?
Record (2 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 1 | Benfica 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Benfica in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.96) and Benfica's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
21%
4.71
26%
3.88
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.40
1.54
Benfica xG
4.71
21%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
5%
21.90
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.9 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.54 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 10W 13D 16L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica's form line: 28W 5D 6L from 39 games, 2.28 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Famalicao.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 15W 2D 2L from 19 away games — 2.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.33 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Benfica in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 10W 13D 16L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Benfica have gone 28W 5D 6L in their last 39 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.32 PPG; Benfica away: 2.47 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Benfica in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Famalicao's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Famalicao
2
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Benfica have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Famalicao 2-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 53%, Benfica 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Famalicao) and 58% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Benfica in 53%; Famalicao have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Famalicao's recent matches and 47% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Famalicao's matches and 58% of Benfica's.
Do Famalicao and Benfica tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Benfica in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Famalicao 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Famalicao 0-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.87 xG and Benfica 1.54 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Benfica attack 1.32 / defence 0.74, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 21% | Draw 26% | Benfica 53%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 54%, Benfica 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.