Estrela 0-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estrela face Santa Clara.

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Match Analysis

Estrela host Santa Clara at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 23 February 2025 at 15:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Estrela — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Estrela have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Santa Clara have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Santa Clara have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estrela at 1.10 PPG versus Santa Clara's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Estrela, 1 for Santa Clara and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Estrela 0–1 Santa Clara — a Santa Clara win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Estrela trading profile (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Santa Clara trading profile (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 41% versus Santa Clara 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estrela 41% | Santa Clara 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.33 xG and Santa Clara 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 1.028 / defence 1.239 | Santa Clara attack 0.978 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.161. Estrela's defence rating of 1.239 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Santa Clara's projected output up. Data: built from Estrela's last 56 games and Santa Clara's last 22.

Result probabilities: Estrela 35% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 39%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.84 | Draw 3.80 | Santa Clara 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Santa Clara as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estrela's last 10 home games and Santa Clara's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estrela 60% (last 10 home games) | Santa Clara 50% (last 10 away games).

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