Estoril 3-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Estoril against 1.70 for GIL Vicente. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Estoril 3W, GIL Vicente 3W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with GIL Vicente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 57% versus GIL Vicente 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 70% | GIL Vicente 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.76 xG and GIL Vicente 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.293 / defence 1.179 | GIL Vicente attack 0.992 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.227. Estoril carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Estoril games / 56 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 45% | Draw 23% | GIL Vicente 31%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | GIL Vicente 3.23. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 70% | GIL Vicente 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 45% | Draw 23% | GIL Vicente 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Estoril 1.76 / GIL Vicente 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.293 / def 1.179 | GIL Vicente attack 0.992 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Estoril (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.44
GIL Vicente xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Estoril vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Estoril 3 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Estoril vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs GIL Vicente part of?
Estoril vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 45% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Estoril and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
Record (9 meetings): Estoril 3W | Draws 3 | GIL Vicente 3W.
What form are Estoril and GIL Vicente in?
Estoril (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (1.29) and GIL Vicente's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.99x) against Estoril's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
45%
2.20
23%
4.33
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.20
1.44
GIL Vicente xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Estoril and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Estoril and 1.44 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril's recent record stands at 20W 16D 20L from 56 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 20L across 56 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Estoril against 1.32 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 12W 8D 8L from 28 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 7W 10D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.20 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 20W 16D 20L in their last 56 games (1.36 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 19W 17D 20L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or GIL Vicente away?
Estoril's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.57 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Estoril or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Estoril
3
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 4, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Estoril 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 61%, GIL Vicente 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Estoril) and 46% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Estoril's games and 50% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Estoril's recent games and 46% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estoril cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat GIL Vicente 3-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.76 xG and GIL Vicente 1.44 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.29 / defence 1.18 against GIL Vicente attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 45% | Draw 23% | GIL Vicente 31%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 70%, GIL Vicente 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.36 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.