Estoril 0-2 Chaves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Estoril at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Chaves travel to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to take on Estoril. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023, 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Chaves — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chaves have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Estoril 0.60 PPG, Chaves 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Estoril, 0 for Chaves and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Chaves trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 35% versus Chaves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estoril 31% | Chaves 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.13 xG and Chaves 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.817 / defence 1.370 | Chaves attack 0.745 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.058. Data: 58 Estoril games / 24 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 37% | Draw 29% | Chaves 34%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Chaves 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 50% | Chaves 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 37% | Draw 29% | Chaves 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Estoril 1.13 / Chaves 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.817 / def 1.370 | Chaves attack 0.745 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Estoril (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Chaves xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Chaves kick off?
Estoril vs Chaves kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Chaves?
Estoril 0 - 2 Chaves.
Where is Estoril vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Chaves part of?
Estoril vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 37% chance of winning, Chaves a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Estoril and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Chaves?
Record (1 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 1 | Chaves 0W.
What form are Estoril and Chaves in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Chaves (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estoril's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Chaves's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.44
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.21
1.08
Chaves xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Estoril and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Estoril and 1.08 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 7W 4D 15L from 26 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 10L across 26 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estoril on 0.96 PPG, Chaves on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 4W 2D 6L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chaves's away record stands at 4W 3D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Chaves in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 7W 4D 15L in their last 26 games (0.96 PPG), while Chaves have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Chaves away?
Chaves's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.17 PPG; Chaves away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Chaves runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2023, when Estoril won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estoril
2
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Estoril have won 1, Chaves have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Chaves 2-2 Estoril.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 42%, Chaves 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Estoril) and 42% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Estoril have failed to score in 33% of games; Chaves in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Estoril's recent matches and 42% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Estoril's recent games and 42% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Chaves tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Chaves in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chaves cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Estoril 0-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.13 xG and Chaves 1.08 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Chaves outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.82 / defence 1.37 against Chaves attack 0.74 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 37% | Draw 29% | Chaves 34%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Chaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 31%, Chaves 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chaves's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 0.96 PPG, Chaves 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chaves win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Chaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.