Estoril 4-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Chaves travel to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to take on Estoril. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023, 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Estoril are significantly better at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
Chaves — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chaves have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Estoril 0.70 PPG, Chaves 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Estoril, 1 for Chaves and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Chaves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Chaves trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 41% versus Chaves 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 44% | Chaves 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 2.42 xG and Chaves 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.123 / defence 0.909 | Chaves attack 0.759 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.289. Chaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Estoril's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Estoril games / 46 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 71% | Draw 17% | Chaves 12%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Chaves 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Estoril 30% | Chaves 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 71% | Draw 17% | Chaves 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Estoril 2.42 / Chaves 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.123 / def 0.909 | Chaves attack 0.759 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Estoril (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Chaves xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Chaves kick off?
Estoril vs Chaves kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Chaves?
Estoril 4 - 0 Chaves.
Where is Estoril vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Chaves part of?
Estoril vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 71% chance of winning, Chaves a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Estoril and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Chaves?
Record (2 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 1 | Chaves 1W.
What form are Estoril and Chaves in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Chaves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estoril's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Chaves's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.91
12%
8.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.31
0.89
Chaves xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
8.38
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
9%
11.22
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
1%
94.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Estoril and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Estoril and 0.89 for Chaves, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Chaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 13W 6D 27L from 46 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 20L across 46 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estoril on 0.98 PPG, Chaves on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 9W 3D 10L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chaves's away record stands at 6W 5D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.09 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Chaves in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 13W 6D 27L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while Chaves have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Chaves away?
Estoril's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.36 PPG; Chaves away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Chaves runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2023, when Estoril won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estoril
2
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Estoril have won 1, Chaves have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Chaves 2-2 Estoril.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Chaves see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 36%, Chaves 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Estoril) and 41% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 32% of games; Chaves in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Estoril's recent matches and 36% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Estoril's recent games and 41% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Chaves tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Chaves in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estoril run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Chaves 4-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 2.42 xG and Chaves 0.89 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chaves landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Chaves attack 0.76 / defence 1.42, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 71% | Draw 17% | Chaves 12%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 44%, Chaves 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Chaves's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 0.98 PPG, Chaves 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Chaves (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.