Estoril 2-3 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 27 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estoril have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Boavista (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Estoril, 1.00 for Boavista — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Estoril register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Boavista in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Estoril, 0 for Boavista and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estoril 52% and Boavista 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 44% | Boavista 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.34 xG and Boavista 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.910 / defence 1.097 | Boavista attack 0.697 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.348. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Estoril's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Estoril games / 23 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 42% | Draw 30% | Boavista 27%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Boavista 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Estoril 70% | Boavista 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 42% | Draw 30% | Boavista 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Estoril 1.34 / Boavista 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.910 / def 1.097 | Boavista attack 0.697 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Estoril (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Boavista xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Boavista kick off?
Estoril vs Boavista kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Boavista?
Estoril 2 - 3 Boavista.
Where is Estoril vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Boavista part of?
Estoril vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 42% chance of winning, Boavista a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Estoril and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Boavista?
Record (1 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 1 | Boavista 0W.
What form are Estoril and Boavista in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Boavista (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.91) and Boavista's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.70x) against Estoril's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.29
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.37
1.03
Boavista xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
7%
14.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Estoril and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Estoril and 1.03 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Estoril have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 7W 9D 7L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boavista's form line: 3W 13D 7L from 23 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Estoril against 0.96 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Estoril have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
On the road, Boavista have gone 0W 5D 6L from 11 away games — 0.45 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Boavista's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.17 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 74%.
Last 23 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Boavista in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 7W 9D 7L in their last 23 games (1.30 PPG), while Boavista have gone 3W 13D 7L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Boavista away?
Estoril's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.09 PPG; Boavista away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Estoril or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Boavista in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Estoril
2
Draws
4
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, Estoril have won 2, Boavista have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Estoril 2-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Estoril, 82% for Boavista — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Estoril) and 54% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Estoril have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Estoril's games and 82% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Estoril's recent games and 54% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Boavista tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Boavista in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Boavista defy the odds to beat Estoril 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Estoril 2-3 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.34 xG and Boavista 1.03 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Boavista outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against Boavista attack 0.70 / defence 1.38, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 42% | Draw 30% | Boavista 27%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Boavista win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 44%, Boavista 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Boavista's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.30 PPG, Boavista 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boavista (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.