Estoril 2-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Boavista encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Boavista in Primeira Liga (matchday 21). Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Estoril have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Estoril at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Boavista (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Boavista away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Estoril's favour (1.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Boavista, who have 4 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Estoril 0–0 Boavista — a draw.
Boavista have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 54% versus Boavista 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 61% | Boavista 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.51 xG and Boavista 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.892 / defence 0.987 | Boavista attack 0.833 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.189. Data: built from Estoril's last 54 games and Boavista's last 54.
Result probabilities: Estoril 49% | Draw 27% | Boavista 24%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.05 | Draw 3.64 | Boavista 4.20. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Boavista have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), but Estoril carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estoril 40% (last 10 home games) | Boavista 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 49% | Draw 27% | Boavista 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Estoril 1.51 / Boavista 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.892 / def 0.987 | Boavista attack 0.833 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Estoril (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Boavista xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs Boavista FAQs
What time does Estoril vs Boavista kick off?
Estoril vs Boavista kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Boavista?
Estoril 2 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Estoril vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Boavista part of?
Estoril vs Boavista is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 49% chance of winning, Boavista a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Estoril and Boavista will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Estoril vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.89) and Boavista's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.83x) against Estoril's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 54 games and Boavista's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.64
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.48
0.98
Boavista xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
5%
18.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs Boavista Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Estoril and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Estoril and 0.98 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Estoril have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 16W 12D 26L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Boavista's form line: 9W 17D 28L from 54 games, 0.81 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Estoril against 0.81 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Estoril have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 27 home games (12W 4D 11L).
On the road, Boavista have gone 5W 6D 16L from their last 27 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 0.96 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Boavista
Blended
Estoril (Home) vs Boavista (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Estoril vs Boavista Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and Boavista in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 16W 12D 26L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while Boavista have gone 9W 17D 28L in their last 54 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Boavista away?
Estoril's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.48 PPG; Boavista away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Estoril and Boavista, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Estoril
2
Draws
4
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs Boavista H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Boavista?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 2, Boavista have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Boavista last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2025: Estoril 2-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 37%, Boavista 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Estoril) and 56% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 26% of games; Boavista in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs Boavista Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and Boavista matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Estoril's recent matches and 56% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estoril and Boavista matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Estoril's recent games and 56% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Boavista matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Estoril's recent matches and 70% of Boavista's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Boavista 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Boavista 2-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.51 xG and Boavista 0.98 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Boavista attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 49% | Draw 27% | Boavista 24%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 61%, Boavista 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Boavista's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.11 PPG, Boavista 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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